British MPs are facing a Commons vote, possibly as early as tomorrow, on a motion backing war with Iraq following the expected failure of UN diplomacy later today, writes Frank Millar in London
This was confirmed last night as Prime Minister Mr Tony Blair,President Bush and Spanish premier Jose Maria Aznar, finessed their exit-strategy from the search for a second Security Council resolution giving Saddam Hussein a firm ultimatum for compliance with the UN's disarmament demands and authorising force in the event of continued Iraqi non-compliance.
At the end of the crisis summit in the Azores, Mr Blair echoed President Bush's insistence that the international community now faced "a moment of truth" and a time of decision. And despite the continued threat of a major Labour party revolt against military action without explicit UN sanction, Downing Street sources confirmed Mr Blair's readiness to gamble on a House of Commons vote before any final decision to commit British forces to action.
With no commitment to put the existing draft second resolution, or any alternative which might emerge in the final hours of negotiations to a vote, Mr Blair, President Bush and Mr Aznar will make their final judgment call on the outcome of the diplomatic process sometime this evening. Speaking before the Azores summit, cabinet minister Mrs Margaret Becket said no final decision had been made on the timing of a Commons debate, which was contingent on the conclusions reached by the leaders.
Mr Blair has repeatedly promised MPs a vote on a substantive motion approving military engagement, while insisting he could not guarantee its timing having regard to his over-riding duty to ensure the safety of troops going into action. However it seems the prime minister and key members of his emerging war cabinet have decided that to use this as cover to avoid a prior vote would be a risky strategy which might inflame hostility on the Labour benches.
The anti-war camp predicted yesterday that an additional 30 to 40 MPs might swell the ranks of the 121 Labour dissidents who opposed the prime minister's Iraq policy and declared the case for war "not proven" in an unprecedented rebellion three weeks ago. But while Mr Blair is braced for one or more resignations from the cabinet, and possibly large-scale resignations from the lower ranks of his government, the Chief Whip, Mrs Hilary Armstrong, has reportedly advised the prime minister that he can count on the support of more than half his total of 411 MPs.
Ministers now seem to accept that the leader of the Commons, Mr Robin Cook, will quit the cabinet if there is no second UN resolution. Surprisingly, however, Downing Street still seems to believe that the International Development Secretary, Ms Clare Short, might not follow through her resignation threat, made last Sunday night in a radio interview during which she branded Mr Blair's approach to the issue as "reckless."
Number 10's obvious hope that is that Ms Short and other potential rebels will review their disposition to oppose military action without UN sanction in light of President Chirac's threat to use the French veto in all circumstances.
And in the Azores last night President Bush again moved to help Mr Blair overcome his domestic political difficulties with important American commitments to a UN role in the reconstruction of a post-Saddam Iraq, and to the protection of the country's territorial integrity and of its resources.
In a further move to reassure Labour doubters the government is considering a break with the convention by which the advice of its law officers remains confidential. This raises the possibility of a statement in the House of Lords, possibly this afternoon, by the Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith, confirming his reported view that UN Resolutions dating back to the conclusion of the first Gulf War combine with Resolution 1441 to provide a legal basis for the deployment of British forces.
Whatever the precise timing of a parliamentary debate, Mr Blair will first seek an audience of Queen Elizabeth to advise her of his intentions. Downing Street said last night that no decision had been taken about a prime ministerial broadcast to the nation.