Burnside tries to extend appeal to both camps in divided UUP

An academic last week described South Antrim as the "ultimate yellow dog" constituency

An academic last week described South Antrim as the "ultimate yellow dog" constituency. Asked to explain, he said: "Put a unionist rosette on a yellow dog and he'd still get elected in South Antrim, no matter the opposition."

The late Clifford Forsythe had a majority of over 16,000 from the last general election for the Ulster Unionist Party. "With Clifford it wasn't a question of counting his votes but of weighing them," as one local psephologist put it.

For sure sometime in the early hours of Friday week another unionist will be returned to Westminster for the constituency. But which unionist? According to DUP candidate the Rev William McCrea an "official" unionist has held the seat since 1922. The "official" unionist candidate in this instance is David Burnside for the UUP, pitted against Mr McCrea. Eleven days to go and it's shaping up to be a quite a dogfight.

There is more at stake than a seat at Westminster. If Mr McCrea wins it could precipitate another internal heave against Mr Trimble. Catch 22 is also at play because if Mr Burnside captures the seat a considerable body of opinion in the pro-Trimble camp fears that his ultimate ambition is to oust the UUP leader.

READ MORE

This is not a clear contest between Yes and No unionists. Everyone knows where the DUP Assembly member for Mid-Ulster stands: fervently against the Good Friday deal. Mr Burnside, though, is trying to walk both sides of the line - tricky territory at the best of times.

He voted for the Belfast Agreement but now accuses Tony Blair of betraying the spirit of the accord on issues such as guns and government, policing and the early release of prisoners. Had he known how the agreement would evolve he would have voted No. "Pretty poor political judgment in the first place," taunts Mr McCrea.

Equally, it's too simplistic to say Mr Burnside is absolutely opposed to the agreement. If Patten could be diluted, if decommissioning involved the actual disposal of IRA weaponry, then perhaps he could re-endorse the agreement. On the campaign trail in Ballyclare, Antrim, Randalstown and Newtownabbey last week Mr Burnside, against the wishes of his advisers, had a tendency to stop, argue and explain his position with the constituents.

For Mr McCrea in the same stomping ground, there is no such complexity. No, No and No again, is, was and, almost assuredly, will be his position on the agreement. A quick handshake here, a friendly word there, and Mr McCrea is charging through the constituency on his daily and nightly canvasses, repeating his slogan, "Your chance to put things right".

The worst case scenario for Mr Burnside is that Yes unionists will vote for the Alliance candidate David Ford because they view the UUP candidate as opposed to the agreement, and No unionists will vote DUP because they view him as too ambiguous on the agreement. Tricky territory indeed.

The flip side is that Alliance and some nationalist voters will follow a policy of ABW (Anybody but Willie) by putting aside their misgivings and placing their X for Burnside in the belief that this is the better option. This would require serious tactical thinking from Yes voters in a constituency that is just not exercised by this election. Another difficulty here is that while Yes voters generally don't like Mr McCrea, they are very suspicious of Mr Burnside.

The current political ennui in South Antrim could metamorphose to political excitement during the 11 days to polling on Thursday week but so far no big issue has set this election afire. There are no vicious head-toheads on radio or television - possibly because Mr McCrea won't appear on any platform with the Sinn Fein candidate, Martin Meehan.

The Representation of the People Act dictates that all candidates must appear on any panel programmes about the election.

In the summer - before the by-election was called and therefore before the Act kicked in - Mr Burnside and Mr McCrea debated together on BBC's Hearts and Minds television programme. There was no doubting that the DUP man was the more natural performer. It's a problem for Mr Burnside who, despite his best efforts, sometimes comes across rather stilted.

How the electorate approaches this election will determine the result. If unionists vote on a Yes/No basis the arithmetic favours Mr McCrea. In the Assembly election of 1998 No unionists took over 15,000 votes, while Yes unionist candidates won over 12,000 votes.

But if Ulster Unionists maintain their party loyalty and buy into Mr Burnside's hard sell of his being the unity UUP candidate, it would be a much closer contest, and he could shade it.

Mr Burnside is banking on his appeal to both wings of the UUP being successful, while Mr McCrea hopes unionist disillusionment with the Belfast Agreement will return him to Westminster, having lost his seat to Martin McGuinness in the Westminster election for Mid-Ulster in 1997.

The candidates are: David Burnside (UUP), William McCrea (DUP), David Ford (Alliance), Donovan McClelland (SDLP), Martin Meehan (Sinn Fein), and David Collins (Natural Law Party).