Bush could still make a difference at swansong EU-US summit

EUROPEAN DIARY/Jamie Smyth: EU AMBASSADOR to the US and former taoiseach John Bruton travelled to Brussels last week to brief…

EUROPEAN DIARY/Jamie Smyth:EU AMBASSADOR to the US and former taoiseach John Bruton travelled to Brussels last week to brief senior European officials ahead of today's EU-US summit in Slovenia.

The summit in Brdo will be the last one attended by US president George Bush, who has enjoyed strained relations with the EU since ordering the invasion of Iraq in 2003. In the dying days of the Bush administration, most EU leaders are probably already looking ahead to the next incumbent of the White House.

But over lunch last week with The Irish Times, Bruton insisted day-to-day relations with the Bush administration had improved substantially since 2004 and that there were still areas where Bush could make a difference.

"There are two areas where Bush is not a lame duck. One is climate change and the other is the Middle East peace process," said Bruton, who has been working as the EU's man in Washington for the past three years, trying to rebuild EU-US relations following the Iraq invasion.

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"If President Bush were to make a significant move on this [ climate change] - for example accepting the concept of a cap-and-trade system or specific targets to cut emissions - it would make life immeasurably easier for the next president," he said.

"Because he opposed Kyoto, President Bush has built up more freedom than any successor to change positions. So I think engaging Bush on this is very important. It will also potentially be very important from the point of view of how history will look at President's Bush's achievements."

Climate change has become a key policy concern of the EU, which has so far failed to persuade the Bush administration to sign up to any meaningful emissions reduction targets. But Bruton said there were some signs of limited movement.

"The US have set up their own mechanism - the major economies process, which is running in parallel to the UN process," he said.

"It is possible that the US will make some concessions in that context rather than the UN. Where you get compromise doesn't really matter that much."

An issue that is likely to be raised at the summit is the EU's plan to include aviation within its emissions-trading scheme in 2011.

The US opposes the measure and has threatened legal action. Attempts to find a compromise will continue in Slovenia, although a breakthrough is unlikely in the short term.

Bruton also praised Bush's recent attempts to kickstart the Middle East peace process following the Annapolis Conference. "President Bush is the first president to have formally said there should be a Palestinian state," said Bruton.

"Progress has not been dramatic, but he has an opportunity to take charge of the issue between now and January."

As the largest aid donor to the Palestinian authorities and a neighbour to the troubled region, the EU has a vital interest in ensuring peace takes hold, according to Bruton, who was more critical of current US policies towards the Islamic world in general.

"The debate in the US about Islamic terrorism has been too narrow, in that it has focused on terrorist acts without looking at the causes. I think we need to address the fact that the Muslim and Arab world feel a real sense of dispossession," said Bruton, who criticised the US administration for failing to deal with terrorism through normal legal channels and refusing to share intelligence with EU anti-terrorism agencies.

"We need better co-operation on terrorism that deals with terrorism as a crime rather than dealing with it on a military level . . . The FBI needs to be willing to share information on a routine basis with Europol," he said, noting that this would be on the talks agenda.

Bruton downplayed European expectations that there would be a major change in US-EU relations when a new president is elected later this year.

"Senator [ Barack] Obama would like to transfer a large amount of troops to Afghanistan, but he can only do that if the situation allows him," he said.

One area of difference between Obama and Republican candidate John McCain was Obama's willingness to talk to Iran and Cuba, said Burton, praising this willingness to engage.

"One of the things the US could learn a lot from is the experience of the Irish peace process," he added. "The irreconcilable can be reconciled if you are patient enough and ingenious enough."

However, he was more critical of the Democratic candidate's stance on free trade. "There is a lot of protectionist rhetoric in the US at the moment . . . quite severely on the Democratic side," said Bruton. "My biggest worry about a failure of the Doha round of WTO [ World Trade Organisation] talks is that ultimately the failure of the round deals a blow to the system itself."

But EU-US relations are unlikely to change radically come January, according to Bruton.

"On a day-to-day basis in the second term of the Bush administration, relations on a practical level have been very good," he said. "Regardless of who gets in, I think there will be less change than some expect."