Candidates are running neck and neck

The areas making up the North Belfast constituency read like a roll-call of the Troubles - New Lodge, Tiger's Bay, Ardoyne, Rathcoole…

The areas making up the North Belfast constituency read like a roll-call of the Troubles - New Lodge, Tiger's Bay, Ardoyne, Rathcoole. Nowhere is there a tighter "quilt" of staunchly republican neighbourhoods and hardline loyalist enclaves living uneasily side by side. Yet the area also includes leafy districts.

The seat has been held by the Ulster Unionist Party's Mr Cecil Walker since 1983. In 1997, he secured a 13,000 majority over the SDLP's Mr Alban Maginness and Sinn Fein's Mr Gerry Kelly, who were neck and neck. But there was no DUP candidate in the race.

At 76, Mr Walker is the North's oldest parliamentarian. His rivals accuse him of being absent both from his constituency and from the House of Commons. He attributed a poor performance in a recent UTV programme to a problem with his hearing aid. Mr Walker also created a stir when he said in a local newspaper interview that in 30 years' time a united Ireland "might not be a bad thing".

The main benefactor from Mr Walker's slip-ups is set to be the DUP's Mr Nigel Dodds. Known as a hard worker in his constituency, he will also benefit from the withdrawal of the Progressive Unionist Party's Mr Billy Hutchinson. While the PUP, which is linked to the Ulster Volunteer Force, is officially a pro-agreement party, Mr Hutchinson has not endorsed Mr Walker. In hardline loyalist estates, where the mood appears to have swung against the agreement, this is bound to benefit Mr Dodds.

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On the nationalist side, there will be an intense battle between Mr Maginness and Mr Kelly. Mr Maginness has a reasonably high profile in the SDLP and is set to benefit from the withdrawal of the Alliance candidate, Mr Tom Campbell. On the minus side, his appeal is unlikely to go beyond middle-class nationalists while Sinn Fein might well make inroads into traditional SDLP territory.

In the 1998 Assembly elections, Sinn Fein secured the largest share of the vote with just over 21 per cent, followed by the DUP on 21 per cent, the SDLP also on 21 per cent and the UUP on almost 11 per cent.

For the local government election, North Belfast comprises the Belfast City Council districts of Castle, Oldpark and Court, where the UUP holds five seats combined, Sinn Fein four, the SDLP, DUP and PUP two each, and Alliance and the Ulster Democratic Party one each. The constituency also includes part of Newtownabbey's Macedon district.