Election spending: Who spends wins. It's an uncomfortable fact about democracies, but electoral success is often as much about the amount of money available to a candidate or party as any other factor, including policy or ideology. Empirical evidence shows that the more a candidate or party spends on an election, the more likely that that candidate or party will get elected, and Ireland is no exception.
Two separate studies on the 1999 local election and 2002 general election by academics Michael Marsh and Ken Benoit from Trinity College showed this. In the 1999 election they concluded that spending €5,000 extra would be likely to raise a candidate's vote by 4.2 per cent.
Irish parties like to talk about the strength of their grass roots organisations, and how their policies or track records will be what will attract voters. However, party officials know well that, while spending more will not ensure you get elected, being well-resourced and well-financed is a key advantage in any election.
By the time the last vote is cast in next year's general election, the political parties and candidates will have spent between €15 million and €22 million on electioneering.
Based on the likely number of candidates and an increase in spending limits, parties and candidates will spend up to €12 million during the election campaign itself, and as much as an additional €10 million in the 12 months preceding the actual election campaign. And given the fact that the generous levels of State funding cannot be used for electioneering purposes, fundraising remains a key issue for political parties and their candidates.
The electoral spending and fundraising rules that have been in place for the last 10 years would appear on the face of it to have decreased the potential impact of fundraising and private financing for political parties. An individual cannot donate more than €6,500 to one party in any single year. There are also strict spending limits during a campaign, which currently stand at between €25,400 and €38,000 per candidate, depending on the size of the constituency.
However, both parties and candidates have been able to avoid this latter rule by spending heavily before a campaign gets under way officially. Billboard campaigns, leaflet drops, candidate tours, large conferences, polling and market research; they all form part of this heavy pre-election spend.
Despite the millions of euro currently being raised by parties and politicians it is likely that less than a quarter of it will have to be declared.
Any donations valued at more than €650 for an individual politician and €5,000 for a party must be declared, but the fundraising activities of political parties are now geared towards ensuring that single donations do not breach this limit.
Last year, for example, parties declared just €140,000. Nearly half of this amount was accounted for by payments to their respective parties by Sinn Féin and Green Party TDs. TDs disclosed less than €150,000 in donations in 2005, and again nearly half of this was from one Fianna Fáil TD, Ivor Callely, for one single fundraiser.
The best possible example of how TDs structure their fundraising is the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern.
He holds an annual fundraising dinner for his legendary constituency operation in Drumcondra. The money raised is reputedly in excess of €50,000, but nobody outside Mr Ahern's constituency knows, since none of the money has to be declared as the cost per person of the dinner is less than €650.
Mr Ahern, like every other astute political operator, knows that even a well-run operation like St Lukes will not survive on volunteerism alone. Money will help you get a lot further.