Cardinals fail to select pope in initial voting

Cardinals will resume their deliberations to select a new pope in Rome this morning with the words of Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger…

Cardinals will resume their deliberations to select a new pope in Rome this morning with the words of Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger ringing in their ears.

At a special Mass before starting their conclave yesterday afternoon, he told them that their choice should fall on someone who would defend the traditional, rigidly orthodox teachings of John Paul II.

Predictably, there was black, not white smoke from the Sistine Chapel yesterday evening at the end of their first session. On yet another day marked by stunning Vatican choreography, the 115 cardinal electors had time for just one inconclusive ballot.

The opening day was largely given over to ceremony with the morning's votive Mass, Pro Eligendo Papa, in the Basilica of St Peter's, followed in the afternoon by a solemn procession into the Sistine Chapel and the subsequent swearing in of the cardinal electors (those cardinals under the age of 80).

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The image of the Dean of Cardinals, German Joseph Ratzinger, reading the electoral oath against the backdrop of Michelangelo's Last Judgement, and in front of four packed rows of red-clad cardinals, provided yet another awesome expression of institutionalised Petrine primacy.

As of this morning, the cardinals get down to serious business with two ballots in each morning and afternoon session over the next three days. If no candidate attracts a two-thirds majority - 77 votes - in the first three full days, then a day's pause will be observed prior to a further 21 ballots.

If the electoral process is still blocked after those 21 ballots, then the cardinals themselves may opt for a simple majority (50 per cent plus one) to decide the election.

The smart money says it will not go that far and that we will have a new pope by tomorrow or Thursday at the latest. That prediction is partly based on historical precedent since the eight conclaves of the 20th century lasted an average of 3.2 days. Gone are the days when a conclave might last two years and nine months, as happened in Viterbo when the conclave ran from November 1268 to September 1271.

If a reasonably brief conclave looks possible, that remains just about the only safe prediction around here. The impression garnered over the last two weeks in Rome remains unchanged - namely that this electoral contest is wide open.

On the eve of the conclave, the last public word fell to one of the cardinals who has figured most prominently in the ante-post betting, Cardinal Ratzinger. As deacon of the College of Cardinals, he presided over yesterday morning's Pro Eligendo Papa Mass, delivering a homily that reflects his uncompromising views on moral relativism and the role of the Catholic Church in a world of aggressive secularism.

"More and more, we are being dictated to by a relativism which accepts nothing as definitive and which takes as its ultimate bench mark the ego and its desires," he said.

"In contrast, an adult faith is not one that follows the tides and trends of the latest novelties."

Most of Cardinal Ratzinger's fellow cardinals will agree with him, yet this does not mean they will agree on the choice of Cardinal Ratzinger himself.

More and more, his candidacy appears of the symbolic, mood testing variety. Whilst he is most unlikely to muster 77 votes, a strong or weak showing by him could send an important signal to the conclave.

After Ratzinger, it will not so much be the deluge as time for men such as Argentine José Mario Bergoglio, Mexican Norberto Rivera Carrera, Portugal's José da Cruz Policarpo, Belgian Godfried Daneels, Indian Ivan Dias, Brazilian Claudio Hummes, Canadian Marc Quellet, Austrian Christoph Schoenborn, Chilean Errazuriz Ossa or, quite possibly, someone whose name has yet to figure in ante-post lists.

Finally, for those watching for smoke in St Peter's Square last night, there was some good news. It seems that the smoke - black for no result, white for a new pope - has been artificially helped.

Chemicals have been added to the burnt ballot papers to ensure that the smoke, instead of being an indistinct grey as on past occasions, was last night clearly black.

When the new pope is elected, too, lest there be any doubt, the bells in the Basilica of St Peter's will ring loud and clear. The bells we will recognise, but the next pope?