The Government has asked the Attorney General, Rory Brady, to advise on whether the preliminary census figures published yesterday should trigger the establishment of a constituency commission to revise the Dáil election boundaries in the autumn, write Stephen Collins & Carl O'Brien.
There will be consternation across the political spectrum if the constituencies are redrawn so close to a general election, as dramatic changes would inevitably result from the census figures.
The State's population has increased to 4.2 million, the highest level in almost 150 years, and an increase of 50 per cent since 1961, according to the results.
The figures published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) show huge variations from the national average of TDs to population across the constituencies, with Dublin West 21 per cent above the average and Dún Laoghaire over 10 per cent below it.
The Attorney General will have to advise the Government on whether the preliminary census figures published yesterday should be regarded as a census, as defined by the Constitution and the electoral law.
In advance of the figures the Minister for the Environment, Dick Roche, had argued that a constituency revision could not take place until the final figures from the CSO were published next April. However, his Cabinet colleagues decided to seek the advice of the Attorney General on the matter. At a press conference yesterday the CSO director general, Donal Garvey, said that there was little or no difference between the preliminary and the final figures. Asked about a constituency revision he said: "It is up to the political system to react to these figures."
The Labour leader, Pat Rabbitte, maintained last night that the basic constitutional requirement that constituencies must be revised by reference to the population figures, "as ascertained by the last preceding census", meant there would now have to be a constituency revision.
"While no previous judicially sanctioned constituency reviews have permitted variations from the national average of more than 8 per cent, these figures show a massive and unacceptable variation in the TD/population ratio throughout the State," he said.
A Fine Gael spokesman said the party was focused on its campaign in the existing 43 constituencies. He added that it was late in the day to change those constituencies.
The revision, whenever it comes, will inevitably lead to dramatic changes in the current boundaries, with extra seats to the west and north of Dublin and in Meath and Kildare. On the other hand, Cork city will lose a seat as will Kerry and Donegal, which are both likely to become five-seat constituencies instead of two three-seaters.
The wider implications of the population rise will pose major challenges for policymakers in meeting the social and infrastructure needs of what is now the fastest-growing member state in the EU.
The main factor behind the rise was the high level of immigration. Net inward migration of 46,000 a year was recorded during the 2002-2006 census period, compared to 26,000 a year during the previous census. The natural increase in population - where births exceed deaths - was also a significant factor and resulted in growth of 33,000 a year. The bulk of population growth was recorded in the Dublin commuter belt, with the Fingal, Meath and Kildare areas accounting for almost one-third of overall population growth.
Overall, every county in the State experienced a natural increase in population. Leitrim, which has recorded an almost continuous decline over the last 150 years, recorded an increase of 12 per cent.
High levels of immigration mean the number of foreign nationals living here is in the region of 400,000, or 10 per cent of the overall population.