Voters support an EU constitution but are divided on how much Ireland should integrate with its European partners, reports Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
Opinion is now evenly divided between those who are sceptical about further European integration and those who are enthusiastic about it.
Since 1996 the same question has been asked regularly in opinion polls in order to track public opinion in relation to the European Union. Voters have been asked to choose between two statements concerning the European Union. The first is that "Ireland should do all it can to unite fully with the European Union". The second is that "Ireland should do all it can to protect its independence from the European Union".
In 10 separate polls since 1996, the pro-integration statement has almost always received greater support than the pro-independence statement. The exception to this pattern came, unsurprisingly, during and just after the first Nice Treaty referendum campaign when the Treaty was rejected by popular vote. During and just after that referendum those supporting the pro-independence statement were in the greater number.
Now those sceptical about further integration again outnumber those who are enthusiastic about it, albeit by just 3 percentage points.
Some 51 per cent say Ireland should do all it can to protect its independence from the EU, 48 per cent that Ireland should do all it can to unite fully with the EU and just 1 per cent have no opinion.
The most striking feature of this is the low percentage of "don't knows" - just 1 per cent. The fact that Ireland now holds the EU presidency and that EU business has had a higher public profile than usual in recent weeks may partly explain why the voters have more clearly defined views on the EU than usual.
It is interesting that farmers - for so long major beneficiaries of EU membership as a result of the receipt of subsidies - are now the most supportive of the independence argument and least disposed to further EU integration. Faced with major reforms of the agricultural subsidy system and the imminent arrival into the Union of poorer farmers from eastern Europe, a large majority of farmers is now keen on protecting independence from the European Union.
Farmers are also somewhat less supportive of an EU constitution than the rest of the population. Some 36 per cent of farmers are in favour, compared to 47 per cent in the general population. In contrast, 54 per cent of urban dwellers and 58 per cent of the better-off ABC1 social group are in favour of an EU constitution.
Finally in relation to a two-speed Europe there is also clear opposition. Of course a "two-speed Europe" is still a very vaguely defined concept and so gauging voter opinion on it must be treated with caution. However the poll question sought to explain the concept, and the low number of "don't knows" - just 9 per cent - indicates that voters were generally clear as to what they were being asked.
Support for a two-speed Europe - with an inner core of rapidly integrating states and an outer core of more slowly moving members is strongest among the youngest 18 to 35 age group (37 per cent) and lowest among the oldest voters (26 per cent among the over 65s). Otherwise the general opposition to the concept is fairly evenly spread, although PD voters appear more open to it. It has to be emphasised that because the PD vote is relatively small, such analysis of its voters' views is less statistically reliable than analysis of other parties' supporters.