IRAQ: Analysis: The newly-returned Grand Ayatollah Sistani is probably the only figure capable of peacefully resolving the conflict, writes Michael Jansen
As US troops and Iraqi national guardsmen edged closer to the Imam Ali Shrine in Najaf yesterday, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani returned to Iraq in a bid to pre-empt an attack on the sacred precincts of the mausoleum. Once he arrived in Basra, neither the Iraqi interim government nor the US military dared to mount a full-scale assault on the shrine.
The ailing ayatollah, who left Najaf at the outset of the three-week stand-off between the US and the Mahdi army militia commanded by the rebel cleric, Mr Moqtada al-Sadr, had no choice but to return home and defuse the volatile situation.
By absenting himself from Iraq at this critical time even for medical treatment, Ayatollah Sistani lost a certain amount of credibility with his flock, the country's majority Shia community, while the standing of Mr Sadr, already high because of his defiance of the occupying powers, rose.
Iraqis of all communities expected Ayatollah Sistani to intervene, as he did during a similar stand-off round the shrine in April. His absence was seen by some cynical observers as a sign that he had given his tacit approval to the forcible removal of Mr Sadr and his militia from the shrine. Nothing seems to have been further from the truth. To do so would risk serious damage to the shrine and lend approval to the US occupation of Iraq, which Ayatollah Sistani firmly opposes.
Sayyid Muhammad Mousawi, a spokesman for the ayatollah, said that, in principle, he opposes any military presence near any of Iraq's holy sites and mosques. Therefore, Ayatollah Sistani demands the withdrawal of militiamen, marines and Iraqi troops from Najaf and the deployment of Iraqi civilian police in the city and round the shrine. Sayyid Mousawi observed that the ayatollah did not name Mr Sadr as the instigator of the troubles in Najaf because it is essential to maintain the unity of the Shia community and of all Iraqis.
Ayatollah Sistani is, almost certainly, the only figure on the Iraqi scene capable of peacefully resolving the Najaf confrontation. The ayatollah (73) was born in Iran but reached eminence as a cleric in Iraq. He is a "marjaa", a source of emulation, and the seniormost Shia cleric in Najaf's "marjaiyyah", the group of four grand ayatollahs responsible for the spiritual welfare of the Shia community.
These clerics rise to the "marjaiyya" by their scholarship, religious judgments and holiness and are confirmed in their positions by the reverence paid them by ordinary Shias. Ayatollah Sistani, as chief "marjaa", cannot afford to let down his congregation.
He is generally portrayed as a moderate because he does not support terrorism of any kind or back violent resistance to the US occupation. But he does believe in the use of civil disobedience and other non-violent means to exert pressure on foreign powers to leave Iraq. He stresses the need for tolerance and dialogue amongst all Iraq's ethnic and religious groups and rejects the domination of one group over the others. For more than a year he has insisted on free, democratic elections on the basis of one-person-one-vote. Men and women, he says, should have equal rights and responsibilities.
Finally, Ayatollah Sistani does not favour rule by clerics, the Iranian model of an Islamic state. Instead he calls for the creation of an "Islamic democracy" in Iraq whereby Iraqis freely choose leaders who would adhere to Islamic values and take no steps to infringe Islamic tenets.
By contrast, Mr Sadr's Mahdi army militia eschews terrorism but engages in armed resistance. Mr Sadr, an upstart of 30-odd years who left the seminary without completing his studies, would like to transform Iraq into an Iranian-style Islamic republic ruled by Iraqi clerics.
Last Saturday he called on Iraqi Shias to flood into Najaf and act as human shields to prevent a US-led assault on the shrine. He was successful.
Some 10,000 civilians reportedly turned up and as many as 2,000 remained in the mosque along with Mr Sadr's fighters, the majority of whom have gradually left.
Grand Ayatollah Sistani will have to surpass this feat by leading a massive march to Najaf and find a formula to restore peace to the holy city.