Cliffhanger finish likely in Leinster

It may not be in the news much in the run-up to polling day, but if any constituency in the European Parliament elections throws…

It may not be in the news much in the run-up to polling day, but if any constituency in the European Parliament elections throws up a cliffhanging finish it's likely to be Leinster.

With no Dana or Marian Harkin-style candidate to shake things up, the constituency has an air of predictability about it; yet, with five strong candidates pursuing four seats, the contest could not be any tighter.

All four sitting MEPs are running again, but in the end one of them - most likely Fine Gael's Alan Gillis or the Green Party's Nuala Ahern - is set to be disappointed.

The campaign was marked by controversy before it even began, when Kilkenny-based Sean Butler shocked Michael Bell - and everyone else - by winning the Labour nomination by a large majority, prompting Bell's resignation as party chairman.

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The 27-year-old Butler is an articulate candidate who showed a healthy appetite for politics by personally canvassing almost all of the 100 delegates before the party's selection convention last September.

But his lack of profile - "He's not even well known in Kilkenny", claims a rival party source - is seen as a major handicap.

Butler's transfers, however, are likely to be crucial in determining who gets the last seat.

Fine Gael activists will need no reminding that last time it was transfers from Bell which sealed the fate of Monica Barnes and pushed Ahern over the winning line.

Fianna Fail's two candidates, Liam Hyland and Jim Fitzsimons, are both considered safe bets to hold their seats, but the party is guarding against complacency.

A tight vote-management strategy, with Fitzsimons seeking No 1s in the five northernmost counties and Hyland targeting the other six, is being implemented.

Fine Gael will require an even more disciplined approach if it is to get both Gillis and Senator Avril Doyle in at the expense of Ahern.

Gillis, despite his reputation as a hard-working parliamentarian, a high profile from his days as IFA president and the consequent support of the farming community, is the more vulnerable.

The party's soundings suggest Wexford-based Doyle is ahead of her colleague and, having been a TD or senator since 1982, she carries more appeal for Fine Gael's core support.

She also has the advantage of being a Belton by birth, giving her strong connections to the family's stronghold in Longford and, consequently, a widespread constituency appeal.

Hyland and Fitzsimons will also be counting on a big personal vote.

Nuala Ahern, however, will be hoping for a more issues-driven campaign in the hope that her high-profile stance on subjects like genetically-modified foods will be to her advantage.

Environmental issues in general are set to be to the forefront of the campaign, with the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant in Cumbria a particular concern to those living on the east coast.

Ahern's problem, however, is that while the Green Party may have taken the lead on these issues, other parties have not been slow in coming on board and promoting similar agendas.

A second problem she faces is the European and local elections being held on the same day, June 11th. That gives bigger parties an advantage on two fronts: local candidates canvassing throughout the constituency are distributing literature for their European election colleagues, and the local poll may also bring out a few more core supporters of the "establishment" parties.

The only thing anyone is confidently predicting, however, is that the result will be in doubt until the very end.

Party share of first-preference vote in 1994: Fianna Fail, 33.46 per cent; Fine Gael, 27.73 per cent; Labour, 15.46 per cent; Green Party, 11.81 per cent; Progressive Democrats, 4.8 per cent; Sinn Fein, 2.49 per cent; Others, 4.25 per cent. Electorate in 1994: 624,561.

Tomorrow: Connacht-Ulster constituency by Theresa Judge

Chris Dooley

Chris Dooley

Chris Dooley is Foreign Editor of The Irish Times