Significant summer temperature rises of up to 3 degrees within 50 years are now almost certain, a new report on Irish climate change has warned.
The report estimated that rainfall during the winter will rise by up to 17 per cent, but decrease by as much as 25 per cent during summer by the middle of this century.
It says that the impact of such climate change is now unavoidable, and states that a likely average increase of 2 degrees in the next 50 years will prompt drought conditions, increased flooding and the possible extinction of some cold climate species in Ireland.
The report was commissioned by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to assess the implications for Ireland of a 2-degree increase in temperatures. Two degrees has been set by the EU as the target limit for climate change.
One of the authors of the report, climatologist Dr John Sweeney, of NUI Maynooth, said that an average rise of at least 2 degrees was the equivalent of a dead cert. "To put it into Cheltenham parlance, if we kept the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to their current levels, there is a two-thirds chance we will keep temperature increases to 2 degrees or less," he said.
The report states that the 2-degree rise is now the likeliest outcome from climate change.
This will raise summer temperatures by an average of up to 3 degrees, with a drop in rainfall of up to 25 per cent in the east and south. This will give summer conditions similar to those at present in northern France. It will also prompt wetter winters, with rainfall expected to rise by a quarter in the midlands.
The report warns that rises above 2 degrees will mean that a tipping point for dangerous and irreversible impacts of climate change could be exceeded, leading to the loss of major ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.
Ireland would face large sea-level rises within decades and lose large sections of coastal land. More intense storms and increased severe flooding would also occur, the report warns.
The report prompted calls by the EPA for local authorities and other State agencies to factor climate change into planning decisions.
The report was welcomed by Minister for the Environment Dick Roche, who said new international targets on reducing emissions needed to be set "as a matter of the utmost urgency".
Ireland currently exceeds its Kyoto emissions target by more than 12 per cent, or the equivalent of nearly seven million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions a year.