TURKEY: Turkey's secular establishment was bracing itself last night for sweeping changes as it became clear that a moderate Islamic party under threat of closure would win a landslide election victory and an outright majority in the national assembly.
If the Justice and Development party (AKP) - whose leader, Mr Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was disqualified as a candidate - takes more than 276 seats it will be the first time any Islamic party has come to power on its own since the foundation of the Turkish republic in 1923.
A crowd waved the party's blue and white flags outside its headquarters in Istanbul and chanted "Erdogan for prime minister".
The official results of Turkey's general election are not expected until late tonight. But with over 70 per cent of the votes counted, the AKP looks set to sweep to power with around 34 per cent support. Its nearest rival, the left-wing secularist Republican People's Party (CHP), trails more than 15 per cent behind.
The landslide victory for AKP does not come as a surprise. But few pollsters predicted that Turkey's unorthodox electoral system would play into its hands.
According to laws in place since the 1980 military coup, parties must obtain more than 10 per cent support to be represented in parliament. The laws were enforced partially to encourage political stability, and partially to keep unwanted Kurdish and religious parties out of government.
Tonight, with results showing that nearly 45 per cent of Turkey's voters will not be represented in the new government, the opposite is likely to happen. One of only two parties over the 10 per cent threshold, AKP is not only certain now to win a parliamentary majority, it could also obtain enough seats to change the constitutional laws that have hampered it throughout the electoral campaign.
On the basis of a prison term he served in 1998 for reciting a religious poem, AKP's controversial leader, Mr Erdogan, was ordered last month to stand down as chairman of his party. Although he has acted throughout the campaign as the party's undisputed leader, he will not be able to sit in the new parliament.
AKP's Istanbul deputy leader, Mr Ilhan Ayri, is adamant that such a situation must not be allowed to continue. "The first thing we will do once in government is to look into the laws banning Tayyip Erdogan from his rightful position as leader", he said.
"God willing, we will win the 367 parliamentary seats necessary to change the constitution."
Such plans are likely to worry Turkey's secularist establishment. In the last five years it has closed down two parties it accused of advocating political Islam and in recent weeks has repeatedly warned that it is keeping a close eye on AKP's movements. The state prosecutor is trying to close the AKP down.
In line with the moderation of his electoral campaign, Mr Erdogan took a placatory tone in his first press conference after results were released.
"Turkey is turning over a new leaf", he said. "Let us hope that the next years will be stabler and more peaceful than the ones we have just finished."
Despite the concerns of the outgoing prime minister, Mr Bulent Ecevit, who warned that a victory for AKP could lead to a political crisis, most Turks seem inclined to trust him.
"I really don't think it's going to be that bad", said Korhan Berzeg, chief economist at Alfa Securities in Istanbul.
He thinks that fears widespread in business circles that AKP will prove unable to resolve Turkey's ongoing recession are unfounded. "The people who say AKP has no managerial experience forget that Erdogan was mayor of Istanbul for four years", he said. "Would anybody in the States raise an eyebrow if an ex-mayor of New York ran for the Presidency?"
International observers seem to be equally phlegmatic. "My top priority is for Turkey to produce a parliament stable enough to bring the country in line with European criteria", said Ms Sarah Ludford MEP, who supports Turkey's accession to the EU.
"And as far as I can see, an AKP majority in parliament is likely to be more efficient than the coalition that has run Turkey for the last three years." - (Additional reporting Guardian Service)