East Derry.
NATIONALIST BATTLEGROUND: Privately, sources in both Sinn Féin and the SDLP seem to agree that there are just two nationalist quotas in East Derry and that the two parties will retain their single seats. The SDLP will be hoping to win back some votes from Sinn Féin following the disastrous 2003 election. Intervening elections in 2005 for Westminster and local government, when it fared better, provide the party with some hope.
UNIONIST BATTLEGROUND: The DUP could mount a reasonable bid for a third seat, but that would mean that the Ulster Unionists are misreading the situation on the ground and have overstated the drift back to their party. Other factors cloud the picture. Leslie Cubbitt, a well-known local, is standing as an independent unionist opposed to the St Andrews Agreement. The Alliance candidate, Barney Fitzpatrick, may well improve on the showing of his predecessor. Much may hinge on voter turnout.
WILD CARD: The Cubbitt factor, the turnout and a possible growth in the appeal of the Alliance Party may well be worth keeping an eye on, but there is an unspoken consensus that the situation will remain 2 DUP, 2 UUP and a seat each for Sinn Féin and SDLP.
OUTGOING MEMBERS
(% share of first-preference votes; Quota = 15%)
*Gregory Campbell (DUP) 4,789 (14.0%)
*David McClarty (UUP) 4,069 (11.9%)
Francis Brolly (SF) 4,019 (11.7%)
George Robinson (DUP) 3,466 (10.1%)
*John Dallat (SDLP) 3,190 (9.3%)
Norman Hillis (UUP) 2,292 (6.7%)
(*Denotes those elected to Assembly in 1998)