Strangford: 6 seats
FACING ITS first Assembly election in the wake of the Iris Robinson affair, the DUP will be hard pressed to repeat its sweep of seats here in 2007.
With four of the six seats and the UUP reduced to just one, this is an overwhelmingly unionist constituency. However, the SDLP just missed out on a seat here last time, falling 31 votes short – the closest margin in the entire election four years ago.
Both unionist parties and the SDLP have much to fight for, as has Alliance which has held its seat here since 1998.
Complicating the picture are boundary changes which bring in additional unionist voters and a smaller number of nationalists.
The DUP privately concedes its grip on four of the six seats will be severely tested here and its task seems all the more difficult by the absence of the once considerable presence of Ms Robinson.
At the peak of her powers she amassed well over 50 per cent of the Strangford vote in the 2005 Westminster election. But that was then. The Ulster Unionists really fancy their chances this time, as does Jim Allister’s Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), which opposes power-sharing with Sinn Féin in the executive.
The DUP should be in line for three quotas, probably ensuring the election of Simon Hamilton, Michelle McIlveen and Jonathan Bell, while the Ulster Unionists should have the best part of two.
The UUP is running the instantly recognisable Mike Nesbitt, a former UTV journalist, alongside party stalwart David McNarry. Which of them finds most favour with the electorate remains to be seen.
The SDLP has promised to take a seat in Strangford for many years now – and failed. At the fourth time of asking it is going to have to deliver Joe Boyle or admit that the task of getting him into Stormont is beyond it.
What could be of use to the SDLP is the simultaneous holding of the local government elections and the running of SDLP council candidates in areas where the party needs to pull out some sort of vote.
Alliance’s Kieran McCarthy got useful help last time out with Green Party transfers. However. the Greens have not nominated this time.
That said, Mr McCarthy has held on to his seat for 13 years and is well placed to do so again.