Voters have the uncanny knack of being able to level the playing field. Everyone craves a contest and Election 2007 is shaping up to be a battle royal, Irish-style.
In late 2006, the election was beginning to look like a foregone conclusion. Fianna Fáil was riding high in the opinion polls after Mr Ahern managed to convince voters that any loans received were given in good faith by friends at a time when he was financially vulnerable. Nothing, it seemed, was going to get in the way of a Fianna Fáil victory.
The words "overall majority" may have been whispered in quiet corners of Leinster House.
The voting public, however, were not happy with the idea of a coronation. They wanted an election, if for no other reason than to feel their vote is worth fighting for. And their wish has come true. The latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll shows support lining up for the parties in such a way that any number of coalition options are possible. The contest is wide open.
For the Government parties and their party leaders, the momentum has been lost. This latest poll, conducted among a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults aged 18 years and upwards on the 23rd and 24th of April across 100 sampling points, shows satisfaction with the performance of the Government has dropped to 43 per cent, five percentage points lower than registered in the January 2007 poll and nine percentage points lower than in November 2006.
In recent months, consumer confidence has taken a pounding. According to the TNS mrbi Confidence Monitor, 34 per cent of the population believe the economy is set to weaken in the year ahead, up from just 14 per cent at the end of 2006. After more than 10 years of economic success, there are clouds on the horizon and the level of support for the Government is reflecting a widespread public anxiety.
The party atmosphere which Charlie McCreevy planned to create with the SSIA scheme has not materialised. The media is awash with bad news stories. Strikes, price hikes, layoffs and shootings abound.
As a consequence, voters are questioning how wisely the current Government has invested our tiger inheritance. They are concerned that this once in a lifetime opportunity to create a better society has been squandered. As the principal party of Government, Fianna Fáil has borne the brunt of this shift in sentiment. The party has seen its first-preference vote move three points lower to 34 per cent. At this level, Fianna Fáil would need to look beyond the PDs or the Green Party to form a new government.
Conceding the moral high ground to engage in auction politics has not revived the party's fortunes and may have caused some voters to question Fianna Fáil's commitment to making hard economic choices in the years ahead. Ultimately, the Fianna Fáil party's only point of competitive advantage is its successful record in managing the economy and maintaining this reputation should be the priority.
Satisfaction with Ahern's performance as Taoiseach is similarly on the wane, down three points to 53 per cent. It would appear that Fianna Fáil's secret weapon has yet to fire.
Fianna Fáil's partners in Government are also struggling against the tide of negative public attitudes toward the quality of our health service and the equity of our criminal justice system.
Although the PDs have recovered from a very poor showing in the January poll, 3 per cent support is at the low end of expectations. Perhaps more concerning for the PDs is the satisfaction rating for McDowell, which at 32 per cent represents a massive drop of 12 points since the beginning of the year.
For the PDs, stamp duty reform, a niche issue, was an unusual one on which to build a campaign and has proven difficult to brand as a PD policy. McDowell needs another policy initiative with which to catch the attention of potential PD voters, and quickly. And not something on which the party can be outbid.
Mary Harney's hardline approach to securing reform within the health service may have come too late for a significant electoral bonus to be realised.
Today's poll findings are enormously encouraging for Fine Gael. Support for the party is up an impressive five percentage points to 31 per cent. The gap between the two main parties, not for the first time, is down to just three percentage points: Fine Gael had managed to narrow the gap to three percentage points in May 2006, only to see Fianna Fáil pull away once again.
With election day just around the corner, there may not be enough time for yet another change in sentiment and another Fianna Fáil rally.
With Kenny's personal satisfaction rating holding steady at 41 per cent, these poll findings suggest the jump in support for Fine Gael is not driven by what that party is offering but by what the current Government is not doing, or more correctly what the current Government has not done.
Fine Gael's strategy of highlighting the inadequacies of the present Government appears to be working.
Fianna Fáil's loss has been Fine Gael's gain. However, Labour has failed to capitalise on Fianna Fáil's decline, dropping one point to 10 per cent of first-preference votes.
If the voting public is looking for an alternative government, it is perhaps not surprising that Fine Gael, the more prominent of the two alternative government parties, has benefited the most from the fall in support for Fianna Fáil.
These poll findings are not good news for Labour, unless we consider how the party is now strategically positioned. Fianna Fáil is looking sufficiently vulnerable to need a relatively substantial bloc of seats to form a new government, while Fine Gael is in a strong enough position to be able to unseat the current combination with the help of Labour. A Labour hedge strategy may yet pay dividends.
With Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael both looking for and needing help to make it over the halfway line, the performance of Sinn Féin and the Green Party will be closely monitored.
Ahern has signalled an unwillingness to enter into government with Sinn Féin, citing economic policy differences as a major sticking point.
With Sinn Féin achieving 10 per cent of first-preference votes in this latest poll, Ahern has closed a door which, had it been open to him, might have offered his only response to a Fine Gael/Labour/Green Party coalition.
Similarly, the Green Party may play a pivotal role in the formation of a new government. On the basis of today's poll findings, neither a Fianna Fáil/PD combination nor a Fine Gael/Labour combination would have enough support to form a new government.
A lot can and will happen between now and election day. The shift that may prove decisive, if it should occur, is a drift back to Fianna Fáil as the election nears, on the basis that voters may be disenchanted with Fianna Fáil now but may nevertheless decide to opt for the economic devil they know on election day.