ANALYSIS:Sinn Féin is the second most popular party for the first time but it cannot afford to rest on its laurels
THE SINN Féin move into second place in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll is a first for the party and raises the question as to whether it is a temporary blip or the start of a long-term trend.
The party is clearly benefiting from the entry of Martin McGuinness into the presidential election campaign but it may also be beginning to make gains on the back of its new status as a serious force in the Dáil.
That said, the party is just one point ahead of Labour and two ahead of Fianna Fáil and it would need to maintain a lead over its rivals in a succession of polls before any definitive conclusions can be drawn.
Only last December Sinn Féin benefited from a surge in support to 15 per cent in an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll in the wake of Pearse Doherty’s success in the Donegal South West byelection. However, when it came to the general election it had dropped back to its longer-term average of 10 per cent.
In the election the party managed to convert that level of support into an impressive 14 seats, by contrast with the elections of 2007 and 2002 when it failed to deliver the support indicated by the polls and fared even less well in terms of seats.
Sinn Féin was able to convert votes into seats in February due to the collapse of Fianna Fáil and its prospects will depend on how the battle between those two parties on the Opposition side of the Dáil develops in the coming years.
The party’s strongest region is Connacht-Ulster and the rest of Leinster and it is weakest in Dublin where it trails well behind Fine Gael and Labour.
In class terms it barely registers among the best-off AB category but gets more than a quarter of the poorest DE category where it is now the biggest party.
The party continues to be far more attractive to men than women and in age terms its strongest support comes from the 25 to 34 age group where it gets 24 per cent. It is weakest among the over 65s where it attracts only 7 per cent.
By contrast, Fianna Fáil is strongest among the over 65s where it is on 28 per cent of the vote and weakest among the 25 to 34 category. Interestingly, the party does very well among the youngest 18- to 24-year-old group, indicating that it still has the capacity to make a recovery among very young voters.
In regional terms Fianna Fáil does best in Munster where it is on 20 per cent and worst in Dublin where it gets just 10 per cent. In class terms its support is relatively evenly spread and it is equally attractive to men and women.
The overall drop of two points, given all the controversy surrounding the party’s decision not to contest the presidential election, is not a bad result. Many in Fianna Fáil will also take some solace from the fact that former national executive member Seán Gallagher has stormed into contention in the presidential election.
The drop of nine points in Micheál Martin’s satisfaction rating is probably a result of the dithering over the presidential election strategy but the party’s standing is reasonably good, given the awful battering it took in February.
Labour will be disappointed to fall behind Sinn Féin and the party has now lost three points since the general election. With the real test coming up in December’s budget the party will do well to hold its current standing.
One heartening bit of news for Labour is that the party’s support in Dublin is holding up pretty well at 25 per cent. Its next strongest region is Munster but it has slipped badly in the rest of Leinster and in Connacht-Ulster.
In class terms, Labour’s vote is strongest among the C2 and DE categories but it also retains a reasonable level of middle-class support. The party does very well among the very youngest 18- to 24-year-olds but it is lowest among over-65s.
Fine Gael has slipped three points since the last poll but with a 35 per cent share of the vote it is well ahead of all other parties and continues to occupy the dominant position that Fianna Fáil held for so long with a solid spread of support across all regions, age groups and social classes.
The party’s vote in Dublin stands at 36 per cent and it is remarkably consistent across the rest of the country where it is just slightly below that figure.
Among the best-off AB voters, Fine Gael has the support of 56 per cent, far ahead of all other parties, and it also has a huge lead among the middle-class C1 voters where it is on 39 per cent. Not surprisingly, it does very well among farmers, but the party also has a lead over Labour among lower middle-class and working-class voters.
Enda Kenny’s satisfaction rating has dropped marginally to 51 per cent but it is still far above the ratings he achieved over the past decade when he was leader of the opposition.
At 2 per cent, support for the Green Party has not changed since the election and the party leader Eamon Ryan is struggling to make an impact from outside the Dáil. The level of support for Independents and Others is down a little with some drift from this category to Sinn Féin likely. In Dublin Independents/Others are now on 11 per cent compared to 17 per cent in July.
