All candidates in the Cork by-election are now agreed that a two-horse race is on the cards and that Fine Gael's Mr Simon Coveney and Fianna Fail's Ms Sinead Behan will be neck and neck when polling opens on Friday.
Throughout the otherwise indifferent campaign, polls have shown that from an early head-start on his Fianna Fail counterpart, Mr Coveney has lost ground to Ms Behan, but continues to be ahead. It means transfers will be vital for either candidate.
However, all the indications from polls conducted throughout the campaign show that most of the Labour candidate's transfers - those of Mr Toddy O'Sullivan, the most senior politician in the field - will go to Mr Coveney, son of the late Hugh Coveney. Yesterday RTE Radio in Cork conducted its own poll and confirmed that Mr Coveney's standing was 35 per cent, just one percentage point ahead of Ms Behan.
The Labour Party had improved in the polls by 5 per cent, bringing it to 19 per cent, while the Green Party had dropped 3 per cent to 8 per cent.
The PDs were on 4 per cent and the other parties, including Sinn Fein and the Natural Law Party, were not in the reckoning. Mr Dan Boyle of the Green Party yesterday conceded that, at best, he might improve his party's standing with the electorate but reckoned that, realistically, a third placing for him would be a good result.
Sinn Fein's Mr Henry Cremin also conceded that with three days to go his hopes would be best satisfied if he laid down good groundwork for the local elections next year. Mr Peter Kelly of the Progressive Democrats said it now seemed as if a two-horse race was in the offing between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail and the PDs would be happy to increase the party's voter-awareness.
The latest poll figures were issued in Cork yesterday by RTE in conjunction with Lansdowne Market Research.
The figures suggest the election will be too close to call but that Mr Coveney will benefit most from transfers.
The campaign has failed to ignite any serious issues in a part of Cork that has many, but as the countdown to election day proceeds there are indications that the narrowing gap between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will finally give this campaign some pepper. The fact that all the other candidates now agree that the two main parties will have to slog it out next Friday and that Labour will come in third, playing the role of king-maker in terms of the transfers, has effectively taken the vim out of this race.
Ms Behan, a 29-year-old Cork solicitor, has a family tradition in Fianna Fail politics but no great profile until now.
Mr Coveney, on the other hand, is the son of a widely respected former minister in Fine Gael, and the sympathy factor due to the tragic circumstances of his father's death cannot be ruled out.