If the Israeli prime minister manages to defy the hardliners - and his own past - then this coming year is likely to be extraordinary, writes Peter Hirschberg, in Jerusalem.
Underestimating Ariel Sharon has become something of a habit for Israeli politicians and the pundits who write about them. For months, many have predicted the demise of the prime minister: the religious right had abandoned him over his plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip, his party was bitterly divided over the move, and it was blocking his only route to survival - bringing the centre-left Labour Party, which supports withdrawal, into government.
The scent of early elections was almost overpowering, especially for the politicians, who vied to see who could most accurately predict the date when they would be held. Commentators wondered if the prime minister's main rival in his ruling Likud party, finance minister Benjamin Netanyahu, would challenge him for the top job. The odds on him succeeding in carrying out his plan to evacuate all 21 settlements in Gaza and four in the northern West Bank seemed to be lengthening by the day.
But again Mr Sharon, a grandmaster of political endurance, has survived the premature eulogising. He has seen off Mr Netanyahu and, after a bout of coalition brinkmanship, which included dumping his main partner - the centrist Shinui party - he is on the verge of reconstituting his coalition with Labour. The move will ensure his political survival through next year; but, most significantly, it increases the chances that 2005 will be the "Year of Disengagement", as the Israeli leader's pull-out plan is called. If Mr Sharon defies the hardliners - and his own past - then it is likely to be an extraordinary year, one in which the man who built so many of the settlements which dot the West Bank and Gaza will begin the process of tearing them down.
With Labour inside his government, the decisions on implementing the different phases of disengagement, beginning next March, are likely to sail through the cabinet unimpeded. The main obstacle to a pull-out will be the settlers, who oppose the uprooting of a single settlement and view a Gaza evacuation as a dangerous precedent for what could follow on the West Bank, where most of them (over 200,000) reside. In recent days, settler leaders have upped the ante, threatening a widespread campaign of civil disobedience to disrupt the Gaza pull-out.
Expect the anti-Sharon and anti-government rhetoric to escalate dramatically in 2005, especially as a withdrawal nears. The police and army fear a scenario in which tens of thousands of settlers and their supporters will throng to Gaza to block the evacuation of the 7,000 settlers living there - a move which could lead to violent confrontation. The secret service has spoken of threats to Sharon himself, and its agents will also be closely watching several sensitive holy sites for fear of attacks by right-wing extremists bent on preventing the pull-out.
One such target could be the Al Aqsa mosque in the Old City of Jerusalem, which is on Judaism's holiest site, the Temple Mount, where the temple stood in biblical times, before being destroyed. The site, which is known to Muslims as Haram al-Sharif (Noble Sanctuary) and is their third holiest site, was the target of a thwarted attack by Jewish extremists in the early 1980s. A successful strike there could spark regional violence.
Two other events which occurred just nine days apart will also shape the way the conflict plays out in the coming year: the re-election of President Bush, who has continued to support Mr Sharon's Gaza plan in the aftermath of his victory, and the death of Yasser Arafat.
Don't hang too much on post-election speculation that Mr Bush might be less hospitable towards Israel in a second term and is ready to push Mr Sharon towards a final-status agreement. Mr Bush can be expected to stand at the Israeli leader's side if he pushes ahead with the dismantling of settlements. The president's demeanour might change only after the Gaza withdrawal - planned to be completed by the last quarter of 2005 - when the world will expect answers from the Israeli leader on what he plans for the West Bank.
Mr Arafat's death could prove more momentous. Palestinians are to hold elections on January 9th to determine his successor, most likely former prime minister Mahmoud Abbas. A moderate who has repeatedly called for an end to violence, Mr Abbas could pose problems for Mr Sharon if he survives politically.
The Israeli leader would prefer that his withdrawal from Gaza remain unilateral. But the "no-partner" logic on which Mr Sharon based his unilateralism when Mr Arafat was still alive could crumble in the face of a new Palestinian leader calling for an end to armed attacks on Israelis and for a negotiated withdrawal. Mr Sharon has already moved to head off this problem, saying he is willing to co-ordinate a pull-out with the Palestinians.
Mr Abbas, who will face the unenviable task of trying to rein in armed groups and win legitimacy following Mr Arafat's death, will try to pressure Mr Sharon by focusing attention away from Gaza and on to the West Bank.
The Palestinians fear that Mr Sharon's plan is to trade Gaza for the West Bank; or, more specifically, to try to convince the world that the quid pro quo for a Gaza withdrawal should be entrenched Israeli control of major settlement blocks in the West Bank.
Mr Sharon clearly has the upper hand, having seized the diplomatic high ground with his Gaza initiative, and he is likely to maintain it in 2005 as long as he proceeds with this plan. The Americans and the Quartet are anxious to see Israel leave Gaza, and the move has already won Mr Sharon rare international approval, even enthusiastic support from President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt.
But Mr Sharon knows that the accolades which accrue to him following a Gaza pull-out will be shortlived. International and domestic attention will rapidly refocus on the future of the West Bank, where dismantling of settlements will be a more complicated task. Calls for Mr Sharon to duplicate his Gaza pull-out in much of the West Bank will not only be issued by the Palestinians and the international community, but also by the Labour Party.
Mr Sharon can expect relative calm within his ruling coalition as long as he sticks to his disengagement plan. However, if he succeeds, immediately after a withdrawal he will find that he faces a new reality of his own making - one in which Israelis, the Palestinians and the world will have seen for the first time that settlements in the occupied territories can be dismantled and that settlers can be evacuated.