ITALY now seems likely to have an early general election, probably at the end of April. This follows an acknowledgment yesterday by the Prime Minister designate. Mr Antonio Maccanico, that he had failed to put together a broad based government intended to implement a programme of constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms.
Mr Maccanico (71) was nominated by President Oscar Luigi Scalfaro exactly two weeks ago in the belief that his reputation as a neutral fixer could help him put together a coalition government comprising representatives of both the centre right and the centre left.
His nomination had followed on the January 11th resignation of the prime minister, Mr Lamberto Dini, whose interim "technocrat" government had been in office for less than year.
Mr Maccanico's nomination initially met with the approval of a majority of both the left and right groupings. Both factions issued pompous declarations about the historic opportunity for Italy which holds the EU Presidency, to finally reform its constitution and parliament with a view to ending an apparent instability that has seen 54 governments come and go since 1945.
In reality, both Mr Berlusconi's Forza Italia party on the right and the ex communist Democratic Left were motivated less by an enthusiasm for changing the democratic ground rules and more by a dread of an impending early election.
In appearance the discussions held by Mr Maccanico on the formation of his government faltered on differing views of the role and powers to be attributed to the president and to parliament.
The right, in particular the exfascists led by Mr Gianfranco Fini, appeared to favour the direct election of a president endowed with sweeping powers. Inevitably, the left rejected this model, arguing that parliamentary counterbalances to the power of the president were prerequisites for a healthy democracy.
In reality, however, the negotiations of the last two weeks also faltered on less lofty considerations. Mr Berlusconi, for example, is believed to have offered his support for a broad based exclusive only in return for the appointment of centre right exponents to both the Ministries of Justice and Posts and Communications.
Such appointments could have proved helpful to Mr Berlusconi in his ongoing legal battles he is currently on trial for corruption and with regard to the future of his Fininvest TV empire.
The logical next step in this Italian crisis will be for Mr Scalfaro to dissolve parliament on Saturday and call an election, probably for the end of April. Current opinion polls suggest that Mr Fini of the ex fascist Alleanza Nazionale could prove the biggest electoral winner.