Daunting week lies ahead for troubled Tories

THINGS are looking ominous for John Major and Brian Mawhinney

THINGS are looking ominous for John Major and Brian Mawhinney. True, it's early days yet, but the Tory high command looks close to losing it - and the Conservative Party conference hasn't started yet.

The prime minister was plainly irritated during his table thumping interview with Sir David Frost on Sunday. And try as he might, the party chairman yesterday couldn't quite conceal his irritation that the party's perceived faultlines - Europe and sleaze - seem set to overshadow his planned launch for the general election campaign.

Cliches abound at this time of the year - never more so than at the beginning of the final week of the conference season. But it is difficult to exaggerate the significance and importance of this week's Tory gathering. After more than 17 years in power, the perception is that the government is losing it. In Bournemouth over the next four days, Major and Mawhinney must infuse their party with the belief that they can win again and then persuade a highly sceptical electorate that they deserve to do so.

This is no small order - and the irritation, therefore, is easy to understand. But while there is yet no signal of public remorse, the irritation must surely be compounded by the knowledge that ministers and MPs alike have contributed enormously to the government's difficulties.

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And as Major and Mawhinney plan yet another fightback, they face the daunting reality that so many of their traditional press allies appear heartsick of them and ready to write them off.

Few doubt that John Major himself is a decent man, personally wounded and offended by charges of Tory sleaze. The popular perception is, indeed, that these recurring allegations are "poisoning British politics". But the leadership's attempt to share the problem across the political spectrum and to blame the press "slant" seems bound to fail.

The man in the street would take some persuading that the world of the parliamentary lobbyist, of "cash for questions", stuffed envelopes, free holidays and shopping sprees in smart London stores is not a predominantly Conservative affliction.

As always on such issues, the public may be expected to lose interest as the waves of "scandal" give way to arguments about the terms of reference of one form of inquiry or another. But the alleged attempt by government whips to influence an earlier inquiry by a Commons select committee is fuelling demands, led by Paddy Ashdown, for a legally constituted tribunal of inquiry.

The Guardian yesterday feared the Hamilton affair was "in danger of developing into something between a quagmire and a farce". But a quagmire will hardly rebound to Major's credit or to his party's advantage.

The farce continued yesterday with Ian Greer taking leave of his lobbying company - and vengefully announcing that MPs and junior ministers had only recently approached him for money to fight the next general election.

One shadow cabinet member last night gleefully suggested the Guardian had "enough" to keep this story running throughout the week.

And there is no doubt that, in heavily fortified Bournemouth, the first editions will spell a new form of terror for the Tory leadership.

Not that the press will be otherwise starved of opportunities for mischief making. Perhaps Stephen Dorrell has a dramatic new vision for the National Health Service. Likewise, perhaps we will not be disappointed by Gillian Shepherd on Education, Sir George Young on Transport or Peter Lilley on Social Security.

There are starring roles for Michael Forsyth and William Hague in this morning's "debate on the Union", which should be good for parity morale. We can expect good knock about stuff from Mawhinney in the chairman's address and on Thursday afternoon from the Deputy Prime Minister, Michael Heseltine.

And in the continuing "law and order" contest, it seems a safe bet that Michael Howard might yet manage to inch to the right of Labour's Jack Straw.

But much of the focus on the platform will be on the potential trouble spots - the first of which falls this morning to the hapless Agriculture Minister, Douglas Hogg. The conference managers, curiously, have placed Michael Portillo and Kenneth Clarke in direct competition for the lead on Thursday's lunchtime news bulletins.

Presumably they hope Hezza's expected barnstormer will supplant them both on the evening news. But if predictions prove correct, Portillo will not attempt to repeat last year's headline grabber, in which case the focus will be the more sharply cast on the chancellor.

Major has insisted his "ally" will be continuing in post but he knows many of the "representatives" here have very different ideas. Grassroot Tories are infuriated by Kenneth Clarke's open enthusiasm for monetary union and see him as the sole impediment to Major ruling out a single currency for the lifetime of the next parliament.

They have also been outraged by his apparent leeriness about a big tax cutting budget. Some think he has already given a hostage to Labour - and that the public would now consider such a budget little more than a bribe. But the Chancellor will be left in no doubt this week that the Conservative Party expects a return to Lady Thatcher's tax cutting agenda.

The former prime minister will be on the platform this morning and will contrive an endorsement of her successor when they "meet" before the television cameras in the afternoon. But off camera, on the conference fringe, the Thatcherites will be found in unrepentant mood - many of them privately savouring the inheritance they believe theirs after Major loses the general election.

We can expect a fresh flurry of expectation, too, as to when that will be. David Trimble plans to be here for three days." On current form, he will spend the time resisting press queries, as to whether the UUP will support Major on the queen's speech setting out the legislative programme for the final parliamentary session.

The belief must be that it will the UUP has no wish for an early election which might deliver a Blair government with a thumping great majority. But in time honoured fashion, the Ulster Unionists intend to keep. Major and everybody else guessing.

With a senior Conservative MP now seriously ill, and his parliamentary majority set to disappear, Major might not consider this the kindest of acts. But the queen's speech is next month's problem. Getting through the week will be enough.