Speculation was growing last night that the decisive battle of the war in Iraq will take place not in Baghdad but in Tikrit, the small town north of the Iraqi capital where Saddam Hussein grew up.
With American tanks encircling Baghdad, senior figures from President Saddam's regime are expected to flee towards Tikrit for a possible last stand, opposition sources believe. Large numbers of Republican Guard troops are camped inside the town.
Over the weekend US special forces sealed the main road from Baghdad to Tikrit, 160km to the north. But there are plenty of other ways of escape. Thousands of Iraqis still loyal to the regime are likely to head in that direction once Baghdad falls, military sources believe.
Tikrit, a provincial town on the banks of the River Tigris, has long occupied an exalted place in the mythology of modern Iraq. It was here 65 years ago that Saddam Hussein was born, in Al-Ouja - an impoverished village of mud huts and houses next to a bend in the river.
He left Tikrit for Baghdad in his teens, but has frequently returned to his former home, now the spiritual capital of his regime. As he rose to power he was quick to point out that Tikrit was also the birthplace of Saladin, the legendary Muslim warrior who defeated the Crusaders in Jerusalem.
Over the past 30 years Tikrit's Sunni Muslim families have demonstrated an unswerving loyalty to President Saddam. They have been lavishly rewarded, and occupy key government positions in the army, the Baath Party, and Iraq's secret police.
Iraqi opposition sources believe that the Tikritis, and in particular members of Saddam's al-Bu Nasir tribe, are among the few groups in Iraq who will fight to the death as his government collapses.
"They know that when Saddam sinks they will sink too," a member of the opposition Iraqi National Congress said. "They don't have much alternative. There is nowhere else to run to."
When the battle for Tikrit will take place is not clear. The US has only a few thousand troops in the north of Iraq. Last night lead units of the 4th Infantry Division, the US army's most advanced fighting force, were moving towards the town from Kuwait. The 30,000-strong division is expected to sweep north past Baghdad and encircle the area.
Kurdish leaders have hinted their forces could also be involved in the battle for Tikrit. But the Kurdish fighters are only lightly armed and, without US air support, would be little match for the Iraqi army and its Soviet tanks.
There are at least four presidential compounds, guarded by the elite Special Republican Guard, including the vast, sumptuous Tharthar Palace. US troops will be keen to secure these quickly, not least because of reports that documents on Iraq's alleged nuclear and biological weapons programmes are hidden there.
But any assault on President Saddam's palaces may not be straightforward. The SRG is fanatically loyal to the Iraqi President. - (Guardian service)