Defeat of Somali Islamists gives rise to new fears of anarchy

SOMALIA: Mogadishu fell to Somali government forces, backed by Ethiopian firepower, with barely a whimper yesterday.

SOMALIA:Mogadishu fell to Somali government forces, backed by Ethiopian firepower, with barely a whimper yesterday.

Many of the city's Islamic militiamen simply discarded their uniforms and stayed at home after leaders of the Union of Islamic Courts abandoned the city late on Wednesday night.

With government battle-wagons - pickups mounted with heavy cannon - closing in on the capital, convoys of fighters were seen leaving Mogadishu for the southern port city of Kismayo.

Meanwhile, the Somali prime minister was flown by Ethiopian helicopter to Afgoya, about 13 miles (21km) from the city, to discuss with clan elders the terms by which he could enter Mogadishu.

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"Today is a historic day for Somalia," said Mohamed Ali Gedi, who until now had seen his government hemmed in by the Islamist movement.

"It is a day of reconciliation and victory [ and] a day of the return of law and order. This victory is Somali people's victory. We are here to bring peace," Mr Gedi said.

Analysts said they were surprised at the speed of the victory but warned that a political vacuum could return the country to a state of anarchy.

Matt Bryden, consultant to the International Crisis Group, which monitors conflict around the world, said: "In some ways it is analogous to Iraq.

"We have early, tactical military victories by Ethiopia which were expected - although perhaps not with the scale and speed with which they have succeeded - but there has been no planning for what comes next."

Mogadishu had been in the hands of the Union of Islamic Courts since June, when they defeated a coalition of warlords backed by the US.

Residents welcomed the peace and security brought by the courts after 15 years of roadblocks, protection rackets and banditry.

However, the rise of the Islamist movement provoked fears of an African Taliban among political leaders in Ethiopia and the US, which accused the courts of sheltering al-Qaeda suspects.

Ethiopia sent in troops to protect Mr Gedi's weak interim government from Islamist advances and on Sunday warplanes and troops began an all-out offensive with tacit US support.

They rapidly seized a string of Islamist bases and by Wednesday closed to within 30 miles (48km) of the capital.

At first, courts leaders said they were digging in for a long guerrilla war. By yesterday they were fleeing for their lives.

Residents of Mogadishu said they feared a return to the bad old days of warlord rule as looters took to the streets and old scores were settled. Shops stayed shut and most people stayed at home as the city reverberated to the sound of gunfire.

Mohamed Ali Doale told the AFP news agency in the city: "I saw four bodies lying on the ground after local militia exchanged fire while they were trying to loot a store where the Islamic courts kept weapons.

"I also saw another civilian, an elderly man, killed by a stray bullet," he added.

Somalia has been without a central government since the Mohamed Siad Barre government was toppled by warlords in 1991. Rival clans carved up the country using rag-tag militias to defend their territory.

The Union of Islamic Courts had managed to win clan support as they moved across the country, but that appeared to evaporate in the face of Ethiopia's military dominance, with elders switching sides.

Before evacuating Mogadishu, the leader of the courts' executive council told reporters that his movement was handing the city back to the clans.

"We have withdrawn our forces and there are no Islamic Court forces [ there].

"It is the Somali people who are resisting," said Sheikh Sharif Ahmed.

"We did not leave the capital to chaos. We left it to avert heavy bombing because Ethiopian forces are practising genocide against the Somali people."

Many Islamist fighters simply took off their fatigues and stayed at home as the Ethiopian forces closed in on the capital. Others were arriving in the port city of Kismayo, one of the last areas under the control of the Islamists. The whereabouts of their leaders were last night unknown.

David Shinn, a former US ambassador to Ethiopia, said their rapid defeat had surprised many observers. He put it down to a switch in allegiance by the country's clans.

"In effect it looks to me as if what has occurred is clan ties have trumped Islamic theology and that it's reverting to the more traditional Somali approach to politics, which is to put clan ties - or sub-clan, or sub-sub clan ties - first," he said.

Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi yesterday vowed to pursue the Islamist leaders. While the African Union has called on him to withdraw his forces, he is believed to have the tacit support of Washington. - (Additional reporting: Reuters)