SEVEN Fianna Fail TDs have already announced they will not contest the coming general election and the figure could rise to nine or 10 before nominations close next year.
Fine Gael and the Labour Party have also suffered losses, but to nothing like the same extent. And the Progressive Democrats are expected to lose a sitting deputy before polling day.
Many of the decisions are age related Dail members in, their late 50s or early 60s are considering their promotional prospects and calling it a day. Some want to spend more time with their families and to explore other interests. But at least two will pursue their political careers in Europe.
There is nothing exceptional about the number of TDs bailing out. In 1989, the number was 12; in 1992, 11, and so far this year 11, although that number is expected to rise.
What is special is the time deputies have had to consider their options. In 1989 and in 1992 backbenchers were pitch forked into unwanted elections at short notice.
Fianna Fail is losing Jimmy Leonard in Cavan/Monaghan John O'Leary in Kerry South; Ger Connolly and Liam Hyland in Laois/Offaly; Michael Noonan and Gerry Collins in Limerick West and Colm Hilliard in Meath. Pat (the Cope) Gallagher may bow out in Donegal South West; there is a question mark over Mattie Brennan in Sligo/Leitrim and Albert Reynolds's decision in Longford/Roscommon may hinge on his libel case.
Particular problems are being caused for Fianna Fail because of the dual mandate rule, whereby a TD/MEP must opt for one parliament or the other before the general election. The rule has caused double vacancies in Limerick West and in Laois/Offaly and it could open the door to a Dail seat for Fine Gael or the Progressive Democrats in both of those constituencies.
Mr Hilliard's retirement will increase the prospects of John Bruton bringing in a running mate in Meath. And Mr O'Leary's decision in Kerry South should ease the pressure on Labour's Breda Moynihan Cronin.
FINE Gael will lose at least two TDs, but one may not disappear as the party would like.
Having failed to win a nomination in Louth, Brendan McGahon is threatening to run as an Independent.
Former minister for foreign affairs Peter Barry is calling it a day in Cork South Central, where the party should easily retain a seat. Whatever Godfrey Timmons in Wicklow decides should not affect the overall strength of the party.
Trouble arises for Fine Gael in Dublin Central, where Jim Mitchell has decided not to run. It will be very difficult for the party to retain that seat, particularly if Bertie Ahern decides to take on a strong running mate. At the same time, Mr Mitchell's decision has brought some relief to sitting TDs, Joe Costello of Labour and Independent, Tony Gregory.
The Labour Party will lose a seat through the decision of John Ryan not to stand in Tipperary North, where Michael O'Kennedy of Fianna Fail should be the beneficiary.
Mervyn Taylor, Minister for Equality and Law Reform, is still considering his political future in Dublin South West. In that constituency, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have targeted one of the two Labour Party seats, along with that held by Pat Rabbitte of Democratic Left.
Down in Clare, Moosajee Bhamjee of Labour is making up his mind. The constituency is a real cockpit and Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Progressive Democrats have already targeted the seat.
Across the river in Limerick East, Peadar Clohessy of the Progressive Democrats is under pressure (again) to stand for one last time. Fianna Fail is leading the hunt for the seat, but Fine Gael is still hopeful.
Looking at the ageing profile of the Dail, the really big shake out of members will take place after the next government's term in office. If that administration runs for four years, and the present hopefuls are elected, 37 TDs will be 60 years or older in 2001. Twelve of those will be in Fianna Fail, 13 in Fine Gael, six in Labour, four in the Progressive Democrats and one in Democratic Left. Of these, seven Fianna Fail TDs will be over 66 years of age; four fall into that category with Fine Gael, two in Labour and three in the Progressive Democrats.
Over the past few months, some commentators have sought to link the number of retiring TDs to pressures created by the multi seat system of PR. But there is no firm evidence of that. The trend towards early retirement is not confined to politicians and it may simply reflect increasing affluence.
BERTIE Ahern admitted during the week that age was the major factor But, he said, some TDs were taking early retirement because of a growing, workload and the poor levels of pay. As for new blood seeking, entry into politics, he remarked: "All parties have problems in getting good quality candidates. A salary level of £32,000 a year, with limited expenses, isn't that attractive."
Efforts have been made in recent years to make the work of backbenchers more relevant and interesting through the establishment of Dail committees. But TDs have refused to resign their local council seats, with the result that their workload has increased dramatically. It took legislation to force ministers and ministers of state to cut their umbilical cords with local council chambers. They seem to have suffered no political ill effects. It may be time to do the same for all Oireachtas members.
The Minister for the Environment, Mr Howlin, has promised a blueprint proposing wide ranging reforms of local government structures, their functions and funding. The matter of representation could also be addressed in that legislation.