If the new Common Agricultural Policy reforms are allowed through unchanged, fewer Irish people will be able to attend the Dublin Horse Show in the future, the president of the Irish Farmers' Association, Mr John Dillon, predicted yesterday.
Using the show as a launching pad for another attack on the Fischler CAP reforms, Mr Dillon said the full implementation of the package would result in the loss of €300 million annually and the loss of 19,000 jobs in rural Ireland in farming and processing.
He said the real agenda of the Agriculture Commissioner, Mr Franz Fischler, was to reduce the production of beef, sheepmeat and cereals in anticipation of EU budget, enlargement and World Trade Organisation pressure.
Mr Dillon said the reforms announced last month would reduce the output in the sectors affected by over 20 per cent, equivalent to €355 million annually and the income loss in the total agri-food sector would be close to €300 million annually.
Lower agricultural production would mean a reduced demand for farm inputs and services and less raw material for the food processing industry, Mr Dillon said.
At a time when rural Ireland was already under pressure, if €300 million of spending power was taken out of the rural economy it would have a major impact on jobs and on the viability of rural towns and villages, he said.
"In fact, if this is allowed happen there will be far fewer people able to attend the Horse Show and other major events if this is allowed go through. It is that significant."
The package, he said, was an attempt to dismantle Irish farming by decoupling production from supports and this would hit committed farmers hardest. They were the mainstay of the modern Irish food industry and the main customers of the farm inputs and services sectors.
He warned farmers who might think decoupling was a positive move that it was an insidious plan to cut farm output and prepare the way for further winding down of direct payments over time.
The organisation's chief economist, Mr Con Lucey, broke down the various elements of the proposals and said decoupling would mean a 35 per cent cut in the nation beef herd, a 32 per cent cut in the national sheep flock and a 35 per cent reduction in cereals production.
"Based on total income loss the total number of jobs under threat would be about 19,000, including 12,000 farmers and those in the food processing and farm inputs sector, and 7,000 whose jobs are dependent on the spending power of primary sectors," he said.
He said in the food processing industry, the reduction in the volume of raw material amounting to €355million at farmgate prices would reduce value-added by about €77 million annually.
Irish farmers purchase inputs and services from other sectors worth €2.2 billion annually, he said, and warned that lower demand for these inputs and services would reduce value-added in these sectors by an estimated €59 million annually.