ANALYSIS:Existing rumblings about the party leadership spread to Cowen loyalists after the Taoiseach's poor handling of revelations about contacts with Seán FitzPatrick
IT BEGAN on Friday when the latest in a long series of dismal opinion polls showed the party’s support at a nadir of 14 per cent.
Almost everybody within the party who spoke about this weekend’s events acknowledged Cowen did himself a lot of damage with his handling of his contacts with Seán FitzPatrick. But the overarching fear gripping TDs within the party was of the scorched earth of electoral annihilation.
So in a sense, it was maverick TD Ned O’Keeffe’s dire warning on Saturday that the party could return as few as 12 seats that set the ball rolling. Those close to Cowen are convinced that Micheál Martin in particular was making phone calls and soundings at the weekend, before the FitzPatrick story broke.
That said, the Taoiseach’s own response to the story acted as a catalyst for the middle ground of the party – who have remained steadfastly loyal to Cowen – to begin shifting away.
Backbench TDs – even loyalists – were frustrated on Monday at Cowen’s lack of visibility since Christmas; at the fact that no parliamentary party meeting had been scheduled for this week; and at what they viewed as a laggardly response to the FitzPatrick revelations. Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan, seen as a contender if the Taoiseach steps down, is believed to have discussed the electoral meltdown facing the party at his weekly meeting with Cowen on Monday.
Martin also met the Taoiseach separately on Monday night and painted a stark picture of the prospects facing the party. Neither is believed to have explicitly told Cowen that he had to step aside.
The Green Party was also deeply concerned about the previously undisclosed 2008 contacts. Later that day, Cowen spoke with John Gormley and agreed to issue a statement. That was sent out at 9pm with Cowen fiercely defending his bona fides, maintaining there was nothing untoward in any of his dealings with FitzPatrick.
Cowen called a meeting of the Fianna Fáil Ministers on Tuesday at lunchtime to discuss the situation. It was described as frank and candid with several saying that the party faced problems if Cowen remained as leader going into the election.
There were two further determinants to the controversy: how the Greens would react; and how Cowen would handle himself in the Dáil on Wednesday. The next day the Greens seemed to douse it when accepting they could find no evidence of any wrongdoing.
At a Leaders’ Questions session that lasted three times its scheduled slot, Cowen also seemed to have sailed clear of the controversy. But then a question by Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin about who else was there threw up two further names, Alan Gray and Gary McGann, the latter who was also a director of Anglo at the time.
The emergence of the name restoked the controversy and began what quickly developed into a leadership crisis. Rumours began circulating that a meeting of Fianna Fáil TDs was to take place and that two backbenchers, Michael McGrath and Thomas Byrne, were laying down a motion of no confidence.
Neither was true but both were carried on electronic media and also circulated widely on Twitter that night. Several TDs, opposed to Cowen, also said that he would face huge opposition at the parliamentary party meeting next day.
Early yesterday, though, the momentum seemed to have disappeared.
The meeting of the TDs and Senators was scheduled to take place at 11am but was then suddenly pushed back until 3pm.
The reasons were twofold. The two potential successors, Martin (who was meeting the Serbian foreign minister in Iveagh House) and Lenihan (who was in the North) were not available. Also Cowen needed to assess the nature and extent of the challenge that he faced.
Cowen met Ministers in small groups throughout the morning. Close supporters said they were not sure if the crisis was being drummed up by the media or was real within Fianna Fáil. Other Ministers, less close, conveyed to him that the middle ground had shifted against him in the past week.
Even his own strongest allies were unsure of where he stood and were uncertain of his survival. It seems that yesterday morning the feeling was he would step down. But then, for a number of reasons, he seemed to rally and decided that he would stand his ground.
“He did not want to be railroaded into taking a decision on the basis of rumours. He respects the traditions and processes of the party.”
With a huge media presence arriving in Leinster House for the 3pm meeting, it quickly became clear that Cowen had deflated the situation with his speech at the start which deferred the leadership question and allowed him to take soundings from colleagues.
While there were divided views afterwards on whether or not this was a stalling tactic, there was large agreement that the question of his leadership needed to be settled.