Divisions dent hopes of pro-agreement parties

On the face of it, the battle in South Belfast is that rarest of things in this Westminster election - a straightforward tussle…

On the face of it, the battle in South Belfast is that rarest of things in this Westminster election - a straightforward tussle between a nationalist, pro-agreement SDLP candidate and a vociferous anti-agreement Ulster Unionist.

Unfortunately, from a pro-agreement point of view, the opposition to the UUP's the Rev Martin Smyth has been shredded by the decision of the SDLP, Alliance Party and Women's Coalition to run candidates.

In the 1997 election, Mr Smyth polled 14,000, compared to 9,500 for the SDLP's Dr Alasdair McDonnell. While there is still a sizeable unionist vote in working class areas to the east, by some estimates there are now as many as 10,000 new electors in the constituency and these will more typically be nationalist or at least pro-agreement.

The Assembly elections in 1998 showed the constituency to be solidly pro-agreement, with the DUP taking only 13 per cent of the vote. The UUP still topped the poll but was ahead of the SDLP by only 2 per cent.

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On this occasion there will be no DUP rival for Mr Smyth. Unionists disenchanted with the agreement are sure to vote for him but his status as one of Mr Trimble's most senior, and vocal, internal critics will be his major weakness.

Some local UUP members doubt whether Mr Smyth will be able to inspire moderate unionists to come out in the same number as before and fear they will vote Alliance or Women's Coalition or stay at home. The UUP apathy, combined with demographic changes, meant the SDLP felt it could win the seat, even though Alliance, with a typical vote of 5,000, was running its candidate, Cllr Geraldine Rice.

However, it was the decision of Prof Monica McWilliams, of the Women's Coalition, to stand that has really dented SDLP hopes. SDLP workers admit to being angry with Prof McWilliams for running. Dr McDonnell himself says he is within 500 votes of Mr Smyth.

In an indication of the acrimony that has developed between the SDLP and Women's Coalition, Prof McWilliams, who polled almost 4,000 in 1998, says a number of people have complained about SDLP workers standing outside Catholic churches and telling people their vote will be wasted if they vote for her.

Dr McDonnell vehemently rejects this claim as being "without substance"

Other Westminster candidates running in South Belfast are Mr Paddy Lynn of the Workers' Party; Mr Alex Maskey of Sinn Fein; Ms Dawn Purvis of the PUP and Mr George Weiss of the Rainbow (Vote for Yourself Party).

Mr Maskey, a strong Sinn Fein candidate, may take some votes from the SDLP, while some pro-agreement unionists would vote for Ms Purvis in place of Alliance or the Women's Coalition.