A FORMER governor from a southern state with a liking for plaid shirts is being noted by political observers as the man to watch after an unexpected strong showing in the Iowa caucus, the first significant act of the 1996 presidential campaign.
Mr Lamar Alexander goes to the key New Hampshire primary next week no longer an outsider in a field of nine but a viable candidate who could give President Clinton a run for his money in the November election.
The actual winner on the Iowa caucus was the long time favourite, Senator Bob Dole, who got 26 per cent of the vote. The conservative commentator, Mr Pat Buchanan, came second with 23 per cent, and Mr Alexander third with 18 per cent.
The big time loser was the millionaire publisher, Mr Steve Forbes, who rivalled Senator Dole as front runner last week but whose support fizzled to 10 per cent.
His poor showing was put down to doubts among Republican votes about a rich, untested, one issue candidate "buying" an election with blanket television advertising in which he pushed his idea of a flat tax.
The political neophyte rejected Christian conservatives in the dying days of the Iowa campaign, and suffered a backlash against his negative ads. His millions will keep the campaign alive in New Hampshire, where his tax proposal is more popular, but the momentum has gone.
Mr Dole showed little joy at winning. The margin of victory, the lowest in the history of the Iowa caucuses, increases doubts about his ability to gain the nomination and to challenge Mr Clinton for the presidency.
Many said the veteran politician and war hero needed 30 per cent to consolidate his position as front runner. He failed. Moreover, he only won with the SLIP port of 41 per cent of voters aged 65 and over. Young electors rejected him by the same margin.
History provides an ominous precedent for the 72 year old Kansas senator, who is making his third run for the White House. He last won the Iowa caucus in 1988, but lost New Hampshire to the third placed candidate in Iowa. Vice President George Bush.
"Tonight was the first big step on our road to return conservative common sense to the White House," the Senate majority leader told supporters before leaving for New Hampshire. "We stood a barrage of millions and millions of dollars of negative advertising and came out on top."
Fighting a "cultural war going on for the soul of America," Mr Buchanan confirmed his surge of popularity with evangelical conservatives. The 57 year old opponent of abortion, also popular with Catholics, is poised to rob Mr Dole of the ultra conservative vote in New Hampshire.
Backed by New Hampshire's major newspaper, Mr Buchanan strikes a populist chord with working class people by attacking big business and promising to stop jobs going to low cost labour abroad.
But no one believes the isolationist Mr Buchanan could beat Mr Clinton if he wins the Republican nomination. Realists among Republicans are turning to Mr Alexander to do that.
The message from Iowa the former Tennessee governor said, was "It's as simple as ABC Alexander Beats Clinton ... On to New Hampshire. Let the future begin," he told cheering supporters.
Mr Clinton fears the 55 year old former governor who campaigns in a red and white plaid work shirt, would he the most formidable candidate. In Iowa he captured both the youth vote and the moderate conservative vote, and analysts believe he could Unite the Republican party in a way that Mr Buchanan or Mr Forbes could not.
His strategist, Mr Ed Rollins, said he was a moderate who had distanced himself from the failed Republican revolution in Washington.
Senator Phil Gramm of Texas finished behind Mr Forbes in fifth position and is no longer a serious candidate. He said before the vote "There are only three tickets out of Iowa." He did not get one of them.
Almost unnoticed, Mr Clinton swept the Democratic contest in Iowa, winning 100 per cent support in a turn out of 50,000 voters. Mr Clinton faces no opposition for the Democratic presidential nomination.
The Republican field faces a gruelling fight in the next six weeks, with contests in 32 states.