DRAPIER/An Insider's Guide to Politics: The first week over, and as always as soon as the campaign starts the pre-election nerves and jitters are forgotten, the rhythm of canvassing, canvassing and more canvassing asserts itself. The focus is now to the next estate or roadway and only one topic of conversation is permitted - votes. Votes lost and votes gained. Don't expect any of us to be rational for the next few weeks.
So what sort of campaign is it? From Drapier's perspective it's almost too polite. People are friendly and seemingly they are friendly to everyone. There is little of the rawness of the early 1980s or even of the 1990s evident. But that does not mean that the election is not being taken seriously. In Drapier's experience a great many people are looking hard at the issues and expect us to take them very seriously indeed.
The debate on the costings which Séamus Brennan has sought to keep to the forefront has an air of unreality about it given Thursday's Exchequer returns. Charlie McCreevy's projected €170 million surplus is now more likely to be a deficit of €500 million - or more. The credibility of the Department of Finance's forecasting has taken a bashing, and with it the claim of Minister McCreevy that with him in charge we could all sleep safe in our beds at night. Add the burden the huge uptake in SSIAs will place on the Exchequer and the problems of the weakening dollar - and many more factors - and we realise that the next government is facing into a myriad of crises, many of them the result of decisions deferred or of the splurge of recent times.
The idea of getting six eminent and independent economists was daft from the start - as in fairness some of the economists were themselves the first to point out. Every age has its high priests or witch doctors and in ours that role seems to have fallen to the economists - a point frequently made by Charles Haughey during his time in government.
There were some interesting moments this week. The picture Fianna Fáil did not want - the Castlebar hug between Bertie Ahern and Pádraig Flynn - was a powerful image and was not much appreciated by Fianna Fáil candidates elsewhere, especially in the politer urban areas.
Could it have been avoided? In a campaign as tightly controlled as this it clearly could have been, so a risk was taken. Will the image be swallowed up in unfolding events, or is it destined to linger on for the duration of the campaign.
The attempted hatchet job on Mary Harney was bizarre. There had been rumours for days of Magill having an unexploded bomb, but when the story appeared it was something of a damp squib. The central allegation about the Flood tribunal collapsed like a house of cards and the other allegations have been around for years with not the slightest substance ever put on them. In addition the sources of the allegations are widely known in here and would be viewed as people with their own agendas and with very flawed reputations as far as the truth is concerned.
Certainly Drapier does not think it will do Mary Harney any harm and he hopes so, but it was unpleasant and a distraction from a campaign that needed her full attention if it was to get any momentum behind it.
Michael McDowell's broadside on Bertie Ahern made an immediate shock impact, but then faded away. The reaction among politicians that Drapier spoke to was that Michael desperately needed blood on the shirt if he was to make an impact in Dublin South East and especially among the traditional Fine Gael voters, some of whom still have a soft spot for him. It's too early to say whether or not it will work, and the downside for Michael is that it portrays him as an individual rather than a team player, reminding voters of his earlier criticisms of Garret FitzGerald when he was in Fine Gael, of Mary Harney during and after the last election and now the Taoiseach, in whose government he serves.
The other dramatic incident of the week was the custard pie. Most people felt Michael Noonan handled it well and quickly put the whole incident behind him. Indeed many felt it had given him a boost. Drapier takes a somewhat different view and is not at one with the generally benign press view of the incident. What we saw was an assault - and a nasty enough one at that. It was not a harmless jape and the way it has been treated will doubtless encourage imitators. But just suppose the next person has something less harmless in the pie - acid even.
It is not a pleasant thought. But it is a real possibility. It only takes one deranged or malign person to make it happen. None of our leaders want to be cocooned from the voters. But we should at least be aware of the real risks involved - before it's too late.
And then to Jim McDaid. Jim McDaid is a decent man and well liked in here. He is one of the less predictable members and is known for speaking his mind. His was the first instalment in the campaign of the old rule - expect the unexpected, but don't expect to know what shape it comes in or from whom. Certainly nobody could have anticipated Jim McDaid's outburst or the storm it has unleashed.
In fairness nobody sought to play politics with it, even though many candidates received anguished and angry phone calls from bereaved relatives. But there is a fair point to be raised about the failure to implement the proposals of the task force on suicide.
Drapier believes that no matter how hard the handlers and spinners try, it will be the people who will determine what the real issues are and in the coming week we could well see the election being given back to the people and taken away from the handlers.