Doubts have been cast on whether Pope John Paul will appoint the Archbishop of Armagh and Catholic primate, Dr Sean Brady, to the college of cardinals at the next consistory, now expected to take place in late February at the earliest.
Over recent months it was thought the consistory, at which the Pope names new cardinals, would take place either in November or shortly before Christmas. As four weeks' notice is usually given in advance, it is now generally accepted that this consistory will not take place in 1997.
Since 1985, Pope John Paul has called a consistory approximately every three years. The last one took place in June 1994. Since then the number of cardinals eligible to vote in Papal elections has dropped to 108, which is 12 fewer than the 120 maximum.
Altogether there are 160 cardinals at the moment, but 52 of them are more than 80 years old, and therefore will not be eligible to vote in the election for a successor to Pope John Paul. That number includes Ireland's Cardinal Cahal Daly, who was 80 recently.
It is thought likely that the earliest date for the next consistory now would be in late February. This would allow for the Pope's visit to Cuba at the end of January. Also between now and then four more cardinals will be over 80, with no other cardinal reaching that age prior to September of next year.
Cardinal Paggi, a retired Papal envoy, will be 80 next Wednesday. Two other cardinals will be 80 on January 15th and 16th, and a fourth in early February. This will bring to 16 the number of vacancies in the cardinals' electoral college, and increase the Pope's room for manoeuvre.
Speculation in the Vatican concerning Dr Brady centres on the current "demand" for places in the electoral college. At least four new cardinals are expected to be from the Curia, where those in waiting include Archbishop Medina (Congregation for the Sacraments), Archbishop Bovane (Con gregation for the Causes of Saints), Archbishop Hoios (Congregation for the Clergy) and Archbishop Stafford (Council for the Laity).
Vacancies also exist in dioceses in South Africa, Chicago, Genoa, Lyons, Madrid, Marseilles, Mexico City, Toledo and Toronto, while appointments are also thought possible for Seville, Vienna, or Zagreb. Vacancies arising between next Wednesday, when Cardinal Paggi reaches 80, and early February will bring to at least 20 the dioceses which would expect a cardinal.
Factors thought to be militating against Dr Brady's appointment at the next consistory include the fact that Ireland already has Cardinal Daly. Further, there is Dr Brady's comparative youth - he is 58 - and there is the acknowledged preference of the Pope to increase the number of non-European cardinals.
Should Dr Brady not be appointed, and should an election for a new Pope take place before his elevation, then an Irish-based Cardinal will not have taken part in a Papal election since Pope John XXIII succeeded Pius XII in 1958. Cardinal Michael Browne, who was an Irishman but based at the Vatican, did take part in the election of Pope Paul VI in 1963.
