Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd faces a growing risk of defeat at the next general election despite his efforts to win votes with a new mining tax, two new opinion polls showed today.
Mr Rudd is still favoured to win re-election, but his Labour party has lost its clear lead over the conservative opposition, with both sides now on 50 per cent support, according to separate polls published in Australian newspapers.
The next election is expected by political analysts to be held around October and to be fought partly over the mining tax, the cornerstone of Mr Rudd's strategy to boost retirement incomes and wipe out the fiscal deficit by 2012-13.
Pollster David Briggs, whose Galaxy firm conducted one of the two surveys, said Mr Rudd was still likely to win the next re-election because Labour could pick up votes from losing Green candidates under Australia's preferential voting system.
But, he told ABC radio, "the primary vote for Labour is still dangerously low."
The Australian's Newspoll survey showed Mr Rudd's standing as preferred prime minister at 49 per cent, down from 59 per cent in March, confirming a trend that has sparked speculation that he might even be dumped as leader ahead of an election.
Both polls showed rapidly building support for deputy prime minister Julia Gillard, who in recent weeks has rejected media speculation she could replace Mr Rudd before the election.
"Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, it seems of late, couldn't sell water to a man dying of thirst in the desert," the Herald Sun said in an editorial, noting that he seemed to have lost his ability to sell government policies to the public.
Support for Ms Gillard in the more closely watched Newspoll jumped from 32 per cent to 40 per cent, while the Galaxy poll had her support at 34 per cent against 45 per cent for Mr Rudd.
The Newspoll had support for Opposition leader Tony Abbott up a point at 33 per cent as Mr Rudd's approval slipped beneath 50 percent for the first time since winning elections in 2007.
The negative polls are unlikely to force the government into any major policy reversals, but will put pressure on Mr Rudd as he seeks to regain the political momentum.
The polls will lessen the chances of an early election fought over Senate opposition to emissions-trade laws as Mr Rudd seeks to restore his standing with voters angry about climate change and bungled government environment programmes.
A rival Nielsen poll earlier this month also showed Mr Rudd's Labour running level with the opposition on 50 per cent.
Reuters