Significant additional retail space will be required in Dublin and its hinterland to cater for a surge in shopping over the next five to 10 years, according to a report to be published this week.
The Retail Planning Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area, including Meath, Kildare and Wicklow, forecasts that retail expenditure will grow by between €2.1 and 2.6 billion to 2006 and by between €3.2 and €4.1 billion from 2006 to 2011.
"The growth of up to 80 per cent-plus over this 10-year period far exceeds expectations for any other European country \ implies the need for significant levels of additional retail development," according to the report's authors.
Mr John Fitzgerald, the Dublin city manager, said the lower estimates of retail-expenditure growth were probably more realistic. He added that the strategy would be reviewed within 18 months.
Compiled by DTZ-Pieda Consulting, in association with estate agents Sherry FitzGerald and planning consultants Brian Meehan and Associates, the retail strategy was commissioned in May 2000 by the Greater Dublin Area's (GDA) seven local authorities. All local authorities are required to produce such a strategy and to incorporate it in their plans.
The most controversial recommendation made by the GDA's consultants is that the Liffey Valley shopping centre at Quarryvale should be upgraded to a major town centre to serve the rapidly expanding Lucan-Clondalkin area.
At the same time, they underline the "dominant role" of Dublin city centre for "high-order shopping", forecasting that it will require more retail floorspace because of a continuing inflow of expenditure from the rest of the GDA and beyond.
"This could support new shopping development in the Docklands area and elsewhere in the city centre, the expansion of district shopping in the suburbs, one or two retail parks together with the equivalent of up to two superstores in suburban Dublin."
In the South Dublin County Council area, apart from targeting Liffey Valley for major expansion, the strategy identifies potential for further development of district centres in Lucan and Clondalkin, as well as the designation of new centres over time. In Fingal, the strategy would concentrate further development in Swords at least until 2006. In the meantime, it says there is scope for more retailing in Malahide and Balbriggan.
In Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, the strategy suggests that a "major town centre" on the former Pye Ireland site south of Dundrum village would probably be sufficient in the short term.
For Meath, it says growth should be concentrated on Navan. For Wicklow, it proposes Wicklow town and Bray as "first-tier centres".
In Kildare, the strategy identifies the Naas-Newbridge-Kilcullen area as the county retail centre, but says similar status should be accorded to Leixlip, Maynooth or Celbridge in the longer term.
The consultants stress that the strategy had been informed by public consultation and influenced by the GDA Strategic Planning Guidelines and the long-term transportation strategy for the capital.
They say the effectiveness of the proposed shopping "hierarchy" would depend on the ability of each retail centre, at whatever level, to perform its allocated role. "Central to this will be the ease with which shoppers are able to access individual centres".
"The progress of the transportation strategy in seeking to alleviate existing congestion and to enhance the quality of access generally will therefore have to be monitored," they conclude.
