The Irish and British governments are hoping that a formula for restoring devolution that they are due to privately present to the DUP and Sinn Féin tomorrow will be sufficiently balanced to win the approval, or at least the acquiescence, of both parties. Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor, reports.
Such is the sensitivity surrounding the proposals that official and party sources would not confirm the presentation. It is understood, however, that the DUP will receive the paper in London and Sinn Féin in Dublin, and that they will have just over a week to accept or reject it.
The DUP leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, and senior colleagues are expected to receive a copy of the proposals in Downing Street tomorrow from the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair.
Senior Sinn Féin politicians, such as Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness, are expected to be given the paper in Dublin by the Taoiseach.
This indicates that Mr Ahern is charged with the main responsibility of persuading Sinn Féin to accept the proposals with Mr Blair attempting to convince the Rev Ian Paisley that the DUP should run with the deal.
The governments are convinced that the IRA has made a firm commitment to decommission and end activity. The issue of IRA disarmament, however, has proved the most difficult of all the hurdles to overcome, with the DUP demanding a "visual aspect" to decommissioning and Mr Ahern expressing concern that the DUP was putting too high a requirement on republicans.
"Getting the balance right here is very difficult," admitted one senior source. "If we lean too far one way we could lose republicans; if we lean too far the other way we could lose the DUP." He indicated that the governments were seeking a compromise between the republican and DUP positions, falling somewhat short of the DUP line but acknowledging that decommissioning must be more "transparent" than at the last disarmament event last year, and must be credible to the unionist public.
The proposals are also expected to make ministers more collectively accountable, and to limit the ability of individual ministers to go off on "solo runs" in terms of sanctioning particular projects. Again, this is very delicate as both Sinn Féin and the SDLP fear proposals that could be construed in any way as allowing unionists a veto over nationalist ministers.
The paper, it is understood, will set a target date of around autumn 2006 for devolving responsibility for policing and criminal justice to the Northern Executive.
It is understood that the paper includes a proposal whereby power in this area can only be devolved through a cross-community nationalist-unionist vote in the Assembly.
The paper may also include a proposal to elect the First and Deputy First Minister and their ministers on the one combined ticket, so to speak.
The presentation of the proposals triggers the start of a difficult and delicate nine-day period after which it should be clear whether a deal is possible or whether plans to reactivate the Stormont institutions must be shelved for a year or more.