DUP emerges having gained concessions

Analysis: When is an agreement not an agreement? Answer: when British prime minister Tony Blair and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern have…

Analysis: When is an agreement not an agreement? Answer: when British prime minister Tony Blair and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern have to "call it" in the Northern Ireland peace process because the parties refuse to meet their deadline and sign-up.

After late night predictions of a "crash landing", and with senior Irish sources openly questioning why Mr Blair ever thought he could get a deal with the Rev Ian Paisley - morning in St Andrews brought a tremor of genuine excitement with first reports of "movement" by the DUP.

The waiting game saw an inevitable dip in the general enthusiasm but eyebrows were raised again when we were finally admitted to the press conference room in the Fairmont Hotel. The podiums awaiting Mr Blair and Mr Ahern, like the backdrop, proclaimed the "St Andrews Agreement".

Alas, Mr Blair's official spokesman quickly confirmed that this was only an agreement between the two governments. "We believe . . . certainly between the two governments . . . there is a St Andrews agreement" the spokesman declared, instantly evoking memories of the Trimble era of "creative ambiguity" and "best estimates" of possible ways forward.

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And scepticism was heightened when the spokesman briefed on the detailed timetable pointing to a resumption of powersharing government by March 26th next year, but with no corresponding clarity or detail on the internal Sinn Féin processes presumed necessary to resolve the outstanding question of policing.

Mr Blair's spokesman was content to leave journalists to study the detail of the published paper, and a quick scan seemed to confirm fears that the devilish detail might not be there. Confusion built further when The Irish Times subsequently asked Downing Street to confirm that Sinn Féin would be required to hold its ardfheis to endorse the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) ahead of the proposed "endorsement by the electorate" in election or referendum form next March.

The reply was that the timing of any ardfheis was a matter for Sinn Féin and it seemed improbable that Dr Paisley would be on the doorsteps "selling" a deal without the republican conference having taken place.

However, light finally fell on darkness when authoritative DUP sources subsequently made clear they were equally unconcerned and pointed back to the published document.

And by their account it suddenly appeared that the really significant "movement" that had occurred had been on the part of the British and Irish governments, and that the DUP might be emerging from this process having achieved a considerable triumph.

According to this assessment, shared with Downing Street, Sinn Féin's endorsement of the PSNI would come two weeks before the formal nomination of Dr Paisley and Sinn Féin's Martin McGuinness as First and Deputy First Ministers designate on November 24th. At that point the parties are required to confirm acceptance or rejection of the St Andrews agreement, paragraph six of which says: "We believe the essential elements of support for law and order include endorsing fully the PSNI and the criminal justice system, actively encouraging everyone in the community to co-operate fully with the PSNI in tackling crime in all areas and actively supporting all the policing and criminal justice institutions, including the Policing Board."

The DUP regard "all the policing and criminal justice institutions" as including the British Security Service, MI5, and the Special Branch.

Moreover, The Irish Times has been told that one of yesterday's "sidebar deals" will see Dr Paisley and Mr McGuinness swear a new oath, including explicit endorsement of the police and the courts, before the Northern Ireland Assembly.

The same oath would apply to all ministers assuming office as the Executive would "go live" next March. The DUP sources claimed this oath had been approved by other parties to the talks, including the SDLP and Ulster Unionists.

However, as if this would not be surprise enough, it was also claimed last night that the DUP has secured Mr Blair's agreement to nominate one of its nine MPs to Westminster's Security and Intelligence Committee - a move they believe would leave them no longer reliant on the Independent Monitoring Commission as they seek to "test" republican promises against actions on the ground.

It is not clear yet to what extent Sinn Féin is a party to any such scenario. However, what is clear beyond doubt is that should this come to pass it would mark a massive reversal of Sinn Féin's declared position, requiring institutions to be "up and running" and a firm date for the devolution of policing powers to the Stormont Assembly before party president Gerry Adams could consider going to a special conference to finally resolve the policing issue.

For all the natural disposition to resist hype and spin, what was also unmistakable last night was a professed belief - again shared between the DUP and the British government - that what has taken place in the last few days might just prove "bigger than the Belfast Agreement".