Despite heated rhetoric, there is limited appetite to close schools over vaccine row

The timing – at least from the Government’s point of view – could hardly be worse.

The move to change the State’s vaccination policy – from one that prioritises frontline professions to an age-based system – comes in the teeth of teachers’ conferences.

These annual gatherings, by their nature, involve unions flexing their muscles in front of their delegates and ratcheting up their rhetoric in a bid to to rally the troops.

There’s been so shortage of this since the conferences got underway on Tuesday morning.

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Union leaders have variously said the policy change is a “bombshell”, that the Government has “reneged” on commitments and “downgraded” the teaching profession’s place in the vaccine queue.

Their argument is that teachers are vulnerable frontline workers and with high levels of contacts each day and often working in poorly ventilated classrooms of up to 30 or more students.

Industrial action

Emergency motions paving the way for potential industrial action are set to be debated on Wednesday.

The extent of real anger and frustration among members, however, is hard to pin down.

Certainly, if the crude barometer of social media is anything to go by, this has not been a burning issue.

Speaking to individual teachers, there are a variety of views which depend on their age and personal circumstances.

Those with health concerns are highly exercised and feel unsafe and exposed; many others are unmoved, largely on the basis that there was never any certainty around vaccination time-scales.

The reality, say public health experts, is most teachers were never going to be vaccinated before the summer break – certainly at second level – under the old vaccination policy.

Under the new approach, it is likely that the vast majority of adults will be vaccinated by September.

In fact, some older teachers who are most at risk may even be vaccinated sooner under the revised, age-based approach.

Compelling

There is also a compelling public health argument which underpins the changes: people aged 60-64 have a 70-times greater risk of dying from Covid-19 compared to someone aged 20-34.

From Minister for Education Norma Foley’s point of view, barring a U-turn, her only viable strategy seems to be explaining the public health rationale behind the move.

She and the Government knows that any commitment to prioritise teachers would be quickly be followed by a queue of tens of thousands of others – such as gardaí, transport workers, retail staff, etc – seeking similar priority treatment.

Given these public health arguments, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that much of the rhetoric around this issue is a battle over perception more than anything else.

Teaching unions feel they have been “downgraded” and need to show their delegates that they will take whatever steps are needed to protect their interests.

How far are they willing to go?

There seems little appetite to shut down schools after a year of major disruption; at second level, all agree that any measures should not interfere with preparations for the Leaving Cert.

The actual wording of joint statement by the three unions released on Tursday which provides for measures “up to and include industrial action” is fairly mild-mannered and leaves plenty of room for manoeuvre.

As a result, the prospect of any disruptive industrial action is highly uncertain. For the unions, the simple strategy of having a ballot in their back pocket, with the threat of action to come, may be just enough for all concerned.