Some 30 per cent of the brightest school leavers in Northern Ireland attend third-level in Britain. Most are middle-class Protestants and will never return. The long-term economic and political effects of this exodus are profound, writes Bob Osborne

Not surprisingly, there is an intensifying focus on political issues in Northern Ireland as the deadline for the possible reinstatement of a power-sharing executive at Stormont approaches.

However, there are important long-term educational issues at work - especially in relation to higher education - which already have, and will undoubtedly continue to have, profound economic and political impacts on the future of Northern Ireland.

Some of the key facts can be readily set out. Participation rates in higher education among school leavers in Northern Ireland are high - around 45 per cent of the relevant age group. This rate is second only to Scotland, and significantly higher than England, but lower than the Republic's rate of about 55 per cent.

However, a longstanding feature of entry to higher education is that a significant proportion of students migrate to colleges and universities outside Northern Ireland. In the 1970s and early 1980s the proportion was over 40 per cent but in the last few years it has been about 30 per cent as the provision of higher education places has increased. This contrasts with the Republic, where only a small number seek higher education outside Ireland.

It is possible to distinguish two groups of leavers amongst these migrants. "Determined leavers" are predominantly middle class, well qualified and from Protestant grammar schools. The determined leavers are those who indicate they are keen to go to the older universities especially in Scotland (Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen) or the north of England (Newcastle, Liverpool, Manchester) plus a few who are bound for Oxbridge.

They say that these universities are "better" and that graduate job opportunities are more plentiful. They also say they feel a cultural affinity with people in Scotland and northern England. Studies in the 1990s also identified other factors - a dislike of the perceived republican role in local student politics together with uncertainty about the long-term position of Protestants in Northern Ireland.

"Reluctant leavers" are those who find it difficult to secure the entry grades for local colleges which on average are higher for comparable courses in Britain. These students are more likely to be modestly qualified, to be drawn more evenly from Protestants and Catholics and to go to the post-1992 universities, again in Scotland and the north of England. It is likely that the proportion of all migrants who are reluctant leavers has decreased as the number of higher education places in Northern Ireland has increased.

Overall, the proportion of Protestants who leave for study is twice as high as for Catholics. This factor, together with the younger age profile of the Catholic community, helps explain why the two Northern Ireland universities are predominantly Catholic. About 55 per cent of students at Queens and 60 per cent at the University of Ulster are Catholic.

Many of these who leave Northern Ireland to study say they will return but only about 25 per cent of graduates actually come back.

Northern Ireland has a good record in opening opportunities to those from less well-off backgrounds - in "widening access". Northern Ireland has the best record in the UK in attracting entrants from these backgrounds and is similar to the institutes of technology in the Republic.

This situation has arisen in part from actions taken by the universities but especially because of the exodus of half of those from middle-class backgrounds as described above. However, the participation of Catholics (women and men) from these lower socio-economic backgrounds is much higher than for Protestants. While Protestant women from more disadvantaged backgrounds do go to university, very few men do so.

Research suggests that few boys from working-class Protestant backgrounds see any rationality, from their perspective, in accumulating the large debts now associated with higher education with at best an uncertain prospect of a good job after graduation. Stories of a "friend of a friend" who went to university, has huge debts and is stacking shelves in a supermarket abound. Many would rather leave school as soon as they can to get a job.

If these are the basic characteristics of higher education participation, what are the consequences?

Two areas can be considered: jobs and politics.

The 2001 census revealed that Catholics in Northern Ireland are more likely to have a degree or postgraduate qualification than Protestants - a transformation from 30 years before. This gap will surely increase if current trends continue. There are also more Catholic graduates being recruited in the overall labour market, especially in the public sector - a direct result of Protestant students going to study and then living elsewhere.

Major employers such as the Northern Ireland civil service show Catholics forming the majority among younger age groups while Protestants have a much higher representation among the 50-plus age group. This trend is bound to produce major change over time.

So, the exodus of some of the best and the brightest from the Protestant community is shifting the balance in the graduate labour market and ultimately to the jobs profiles of the two communities.

Access to higher education has provided a major route for social mobility for Catholics from disadvantaged backgrounds. Many Catholic students who came from some of the most deprived communities over the past decades are now building successful careers in the professions and senior management and administrative and other jobs.

This has not been so for Protestants from similarly disadvantaged backgrounds where underachievement remains substantial.

A recent Westminster parliamentary committee noted that Protestant working-class educational underachievement in Belfast was well below that found in working class areas of Glasgow. The late David Ervine recognised this issue as one of major importance for future government policy - as do community leaders in Protestant working-class areas.

What does it all mean politically?

Whether unionist politicians will admit it or not this exodus from the protestant middle class looks like a vote of no confidence in Northern Ireland.

Allied to anecdotal evidence of Protestants reaching retirement and moving to Britain where their graduate children (and grandchildren) now live add further to the sense of desertion. A community which exports such a substantial proportion of its most able students over such a long time risks losing the dynamism and energy for renewal in political leadership and civic life. Add to this the substantial educational underachievement in Protestant working-class communities and there is much for thoughtful unionist politicians to grapple with in a devolved power-sharing Assembly.

Prof Bob Osborne is director of the social and policy research institute at the University of Ulster