Western countries are finalising plans to evacuate diplomatic families, writes Rahul Bedi, from New Delhi
International efforts intensified yesterday to try and pull back nuclear rivals India and Pakistan from the brink of a potentially apocalyptic military conflict, even as several Western countries finalised contingency plans to evacuate the relatives of their diplomatic staff from the region.
New Zealand said it was pulling out the families of its diplomatic personnel from the Indian capital Delhi while the US, Britain and Australia declared that they were making emergency plans to evacuate their embassy personnel if the already tense situation deteriorated further.
The families of US and British diplomats in the Pakistani capital Islamabad have already been flown home, following a series of attacks on foreigners and the prospect of an Indian military strike.
Officials in Delhi said if efforts by the US, Britain, France, Russia, Japan and Germany to defuse tension between the South Asian rivals did not yield results within the next week, the chances of conflict would "increase exponentially".
Military officers said any provocative action, like another attack by Islamic militants on India, would fuel tensions with Pakistan that are already near flashpoint.
The US, that is leading the diplomatic offensive in the region has warned that "irresponsible elements" - a euphemism for Pakistan-based fundamentalist groups - might try and exploit the situation to trigger conflict.
The US Defence Secretary, Mr Donald Rumsfeld, arrives here next week to try and calm down the situation between India and Pakistan who amassed over one million soldiers on their common border following the suicide attack by Muslim insurgents on Delhi's parliament last December.
The troops went on "high alert" and began engaging in daily artillery and mortar duels on the border after the May 14th militant attack on soldiers' families at a garrison in northern, disputed Jammu and Kashmir state which like the parliament strike, India blames on Pakistan.
Pakistan denies India's allegations. It also denies supporting the 13-year long Muslim insurgency in Kashmir that has claimed over 35,000 lives. The Muslim-majority Kashmir that is divided between India and Pakistan, but claimed by both, is responsible for the bitterness between the neighbours who have fought two of their three wars over it since independence in 1947.
However, the Indian Defence Minister, Mr George Fernandes, played down fears of imminent conflict.
"I don't think one needs to worry just now as to what is likely to happen as the situation on the border is stable," Mr Fernandes told reporters after talks with the US Deputy Defence Secretary, Mr Paul Wolfowitz, at a regional security conference in Singapore.
Hinting at a nuclear exchange between the neighbours, Mr Wolfowitz had earlier said that a war between the two has "the potential for catastrophic consequences that would do untold damage to India, to Pakistan, to the whole world." Pakistani leaders have frequently threatened to use nuclear weapons against India if they faced military defeat.
Meanwhile, the UK-based Jane's Information Group said India had up to 150 nuclear warheads while Pakistan possessed around a third of that number.
The Jane's analysis by security and military experts warned that any nuclear conflict between them would be self-defeating, as the bombs would inflict terrible casualties on home populations and the targeted cities.
A recent US study indicated that over 12 million people would die in the first strike in both India and Pakistan and an equal, if not larger number, would perish horribly soon after.