Election struggle replaces military battle

AT 2AM on Sunday Israeli troops began observing a ceasefire, ending the three-week war in Gaza

AT 2AM on Sunday Israeli troops began observing a ceasefire, ending the three-week war in Gaza. At 2am on Sunday, the Israeli election campaign began.

The 34 parties competing in the February 10th poll had started campaigning before the first Israeli air strike on Gaza on December 27th, but with the country at war, the electioneering stopped.

Before Operation Cast Lead the issues were: which candidate has the most integrity and the cleanest record, and who is best suited to lead Israel during the world economic crisis.

In the aftermath of the war these issues have been largely forgotten. The issue now is the conduct of the military campaign, and its outcome.

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The major political effect of the war was to boost the standing of defence minister Ehud Barak, the leader of the left-wing Labour party, who has almost guaranteed himself the post of defence minister in a future coalition government.

His popularity shot up, and Labour, which was predicted to win only nine to 11 seats in the 120-seat Knesset before the war, will now gain 14-16 seats, according to the polls.

But Labour’s gain is Kadima’s loss. The polls show that the ruling centrist party, headed by foreign minister Tzipi Livni, lost support during the three-week campaign, and trails significantly behind the right-wing Likud party.

The unwritten rule of Israeli politics, that war is good for the right wing, held true during the current campaign, and the right-wing bloc remains ahead of the left-centre bloc. Former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is firm favourite to become Israel’s next premier.

But the contest is still close, and with a lot of floating voters this time round, an upset is still possible. However, any resumption of militant rocket attacks from Gaza in the three weeks before the vote would spell electoral disaster for both Kadima and Labour.

Both Ms Livni and Mr Barak spent Monday playing up Israel’s victory over Hamas.

The foreign minister, who pressed for a unilateral Israeli ceasefire, said Israel stopped the war at the right time. “This is part of the wisdom that leadership needs to have,” she said.

“When the alternative is to continue when there is little benefit, and then to perhaps sink into the quagmire afterward, this is very unwise.”

Mr Barak, who planned the military campaign together with army generals, told wounded soldiers recovering in hospital that they helped restore “Israel’s deterrence, allowing residents of the south to once again live quiet lives”.

Mr Netanyahu praised the troops and the residents of the south, but criticised the government for failing to reap the required diplomatic rewards. “Hamas is still in control in Gaza,” the Likud leader said, “and is continuing to smuggle rockets under the border with Egypt.”

The Likud intends to relaunch a poster campaign with the slogan “It’s too big for her (to handle),” implying that Tzipi Livni lacks the political experience and military background to lead the country.