Things were getting a bit agitated around Leinster House this week, as difficulties simmered above and beneath the surface. In one way, it was typical end-of-term tetchiness - the Dail rose for two weeks on Thursday - but there is also the feeling that they are all in the run-up to a vital election. The dispute with the four independents who support the Government over Noel Dempsey's plan to ban members of the Oireachtas from holding council seats (from 2004) is boiling away. The four - Jackie Healy Rae, Mildred Fox, Harry Blaney and Tom Gildea - are determined to retain what they see as a vital element in their power base. The Local Government Bill, which contains this clause, along with many other controversial measures, is due before the Dail after Easter and the four say they will vote against it and withdraw their support thereafter. In contrast, the two Greens say they will back the Bill. But while the Government could get it through with votes from various quarters, it cannot afford to lose the independents for good. Dempsey and chief whip Seamus Brennan are at odds over the matter and, knowing the boss Bertie Ahern, it is believed Dempsey will have to find his way out of this one. He could leave it for the next government to deal with.
Meanwhile, the abortion issue (and the mighty four are determined here, too) has been sidelined to date. It won't go away, though, and will be less easy to solve than the dual mandate.
The GAA row is the issue on the surface, however, and it became clear this week - when Mary Harney flexed her muscles and demanded conditions be attached to the proposed £60 million grant - that the immediate danger lies here. Harney is determined on this one and, by his worried responses, it appears the Taoiseach knows it. If she walks, the Government falls. As for the referendum on the Nice treaty, only senior Ministers and Europhiles are bothering to worry. Europe is low on the agenda these days.