Estranged Taiwan facing reality of China rapprochement

Letter from Taiwan: China considers breakaway Taiwan a renegade province, an inviolable part of its territory since Chiang Kai…

Letter from Taiwan:China considers breakaway Taiwan a renegade province, an inviolable part of its territory since Chiang Kai-shek's Kuomintang (KMT) lost the civil war with Mao Zedong's Communists and fled to the island in 1949.

But the Taiwanese people, waving flags, letting off firecrackers, banging drums and singing rousing election songs during last weekend's mayoral vote, have different ideas about who runs the island once known as Formosa. This is Asia's most enthusiastic democracy and the sight of Chinese people voting is quite odd to anyone used to single-party rule on the mainland.

Taiwan introduced elections nearly 20 years ago after it abandoned martial law, and the sheer joy of casting a vote seems to outweigh the complaints of vote-buying and general cynicism. It almost overcomes the fear of living with the threat of constant invasion from across the Straits of Taiwan.

Taipei is richer than any mainland city and considerably cleaner, with a good deal less air pollution, though the traffic can be compared with the worst cross-strait snarl-up. People speak Mandarin, just as they do in the mainland with a more traditional syntax. Chiang Kai-shek took all the best art with him to Taiwan in 1949, which is good news for the National Palace Museum, and Christmas shoppers throng the malls of Taipei 101, a skyscraper which stands out weirdly in the low-rise city and has been the world's tallest building since 2004.

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Taiwanese people enjoy much higher levels of personal freedom than on the mainland. There are regular elections and no restrictions on the media or the legal system.

But all of this depends on China not invading. US military experts reckon China needs 15 submarines to impose a blockade on Taiwan, and the mainland has 900 short-range missiles pointing across the straits.

In the face of this threat and regular sabre-rattling is defiance - perhaps the reason why pro-independence president Chen Shui-bian seems able to keep his DPP party afloat despite regular sleaze allegations. Chen held second-city Kaoshiung in the mayoral elections and did better than expected in Taipei, a KMT stronghold. The DPP was the first party to rule Taiwan since the KMT abandoned martial law and allowed free elections.

Beijing says Chen is not to be trusted, and has threatened to invade the island of 23 million if it tries to declare formal independence.

While the United States has pledged to defend Taiwan against invasion, the West has generally opted to give Beijing the benefit of the doubt when it comes to diplomatic recognition.

Because China does not accept that Taiwan is a separate country, the island nation - known formally as the Republic of China - is recognised by only 24 countries worldwide, 13 in central America. Since early 2005, three countries - Grenada, Senegal and Chad - have switched their relations from Taipei to Beijing. The Vatican could be next.

In the airport, a heading on a billboard reads: "Shhh . . . revolution in progress . . . from cocoon to butterfly, from obscurity to prominence, the Republic of China has emerged, in all its splendour."

But China has used its influence to keep Taiwan out of the United Nations, the World Health Organisation and even choral contests and the world hairdressing championships.

Taiwanese people do occasionally ask visitors why the West has chosen to back a single-party communist regime rather than a democracy.

"The relationship with the mainland is basically the most important question there is in Taiwan, all else is subsidiary," says Joseph Wu, chairman of the mainland affairs council.

"In essence, the status quo means two entities. If there's going to be one China, then it has to be negotiated in a peaceful way that's acceptable to the Taiwanese people," says Wu.

Efforts to resolve the stand-off in the Straits of Taiwan have focused on negotiating similar terms to those seen in Hong Kong.

Taiwanese residents feel strong cultural affinities to the mainland - many are the children and grandchildren of emigrants after the civil war - and more and more Taiwanese companies are moving to the mainland to take advantage of cheap labour and the large domestic market.

"Unfortunately, the world pretends that there is no existence of Taiwan. We have been independent for decades with our own constitution and our own territory and people. The fact is that China, being so big a nation, it's very attractive economically, so everyone wants to make money with China and then they forgot that China is still a communist regime," says vice-president Annette Lu.

Traditionally communist China's arch-rival, the KMT nonetheless shares a common heritage with the communists - both have the same Soviet party structure introduced by agitators sent in the early 20th century.

These days the KMT leadership wants more trade with China and supports reunification.

"The best situation is if we are the inventors of products and providers of capital and then perceive China as a factory and as a market. If you want to do that you have to keep a peaceful and close relationship with mainland China, just like the rest of the world. To maintain our current status, you don't have to rock the boat," says KMT spokesman Wu Hsiu-Kuang.

There are advances being made in bringing about more contacts between Taiwan and the mainland, including more direct flights and allowing more tourists to join the million Taiwanese businesspeople currently on the mainland.

But in the long term many people are worried about the future of the island, as it could become increasingly marginalised. For all its wealthy IT businesses, its flowering democracy, and sophisticated and educated workforce, Taiwan remains a niche regional player, while mainland China is developing into one of the engines of global economic growth for this century. Realpolitik looks set to win out.

Clifford Coonan

Clifford Coonan

Clifford Coonan, an Irish Times contributor, spent 15 years reporting from Beijing