THE RACE for the first presidency of the European Council is intensifying ahead of an informal gathering of EU leaders at celebrations to mark the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Although Belgian prime minister Herman Van Rompuy is emerging as a leading compromise candidate for the newly created post, Britain continues to promote former prime minister Tony Blair in the face of resistance from his own political family.
The campaign of former taoiseach John Bruton remains well behind the running, with sources in Brussels and Dublin questioning his tactical approach and whether he can garner support from east European leaders.
Political sources believe the selection process may well advance in Berlin when leaders gather at a dinner on Sunday night to celebrate the opening of the East German border on November 9th, 1989.
While Sweden’s EU presidency has embarked on political consultations on the appointment, the events in Berlin will provide EU leaders with their first opportunity to informally discuss the matter since Czech president Vaclav Klaus signed the Lisbon Treaty two days ago.
Respected as a consensual leader who has brought stability to Belgium’s fractious politics since taking office last December, Mr Van Rompuy is but the latest contender to emerge to the fore from the three Benelux countries.
His low profile and reputation for economic and political competence may match demands from certain EU leaders that the post go to a politician from a smaller country who would act more as a chairman than a global figure such as Mr Blair. It is widely acknowledged, however, that the race remains open and may not conclude until a special EU summit, possibly at the end of next week.
“It’s very hard to get a handle on this. Names seem to rise and fall in the space of a few hours,” said a diplomatic source.
Swedish prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, current holder of the rotating EU presidency, is en route to an EU-India summit on Friday so bilateral contacts with individual leaders are likely to continue after the weekend.
Mr Blair has made personal contact with German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy to canvass support for his faltering campaign.
A possible compromise is that Britain backs away from Mr Blair in return for the selection of foreign secretary David Miliband to the newly created post of EU high representative for foreign affairs.
Others in the race for the presidency include Dutch prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende, whom observers say may be lacking in popularity around the table of EU leaders, and Luxembourg’s prime minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, whose relations with Britain and France are frosty.
Mr Bruton’s campaign has been dogged from the outset by the fact that it has been 12 years since he was taoiseach, meaning few EU leaders have any real knowledge of his performance in that post.
In addition, sources in Brussels have claimed he irked some member states and certain figures in the European Commission during his five-year tenure as EU ambassador to the US by projecting himself as “president of Europe in Washington”.
This was dismissed by sources in Dublin, who said Mr Bruton could not be faulted for his standing and contacts in the US capital.
But they argued that Mr Bruton should have moved much sooner to directly canvass support from the European People’s Party, Fine Gael’s group in the European Parliament.
The sources also maintained that EU leaders from the former eastern bloc countries, an important constituency in the selection process, had virtually no knowledge of Mr Bruton and his political skills.