EUROPE IS braced for change and uncertainty as the people of France and Greece cast judgment on their leaders this weekend, votes with potential to reshape the political landscape in the third year of the debt crisis.
French socialist François Hollande leads incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy before the final round of votes tomorrow in the presidential election. Victory for Mr Hollande would realign the Franco-German axis, which dominates the response to the debt crisis, and add momentum to the clamour for new measures to promote economic growth.
At the same time, the rapid ascent of anti-bailout parties in the Greek election has raised fresh questions over the viability of the second EU-IMF rescue plan for the country.
European sources say any failure by the new Greek government to execute the agreed austerity programme would halt the release of rescue loans, something which would trigger a new wave of turmoil on debt markets.
Regional and local elections in Germany and Italy this weekend will also test the public mood in those countries. These polls come days after British voters dealt a blow to prime minister David Cameron in local elections, although counts showed Tory mayor of London Boris Johnson polling more strongly than his rival Ken Livingstone of Labour.
Mr Hollande is well-placed to oust Mr Sarkozy, although polls suggest his lead is narrowing.
As Europeans grapple with austerity and record unemployment, more than half the governments of the euro zone have collapsed or been voted out of office since the debt crisis began.
Mr Hollande wants to refocus European policy towards growth and says the European Central Bank should be given powers to lend to states directly, which is anathema to Germany.
He also wants to revise Europe’s fiscal treaty, supplementing the agreement with growth-oriented policies, and has already opened contact with Dublin on this question. His camp has also held informal talks with officials in Berlin and Frankfurt, home of the ECB.
“I am confident a compromise can be reached on the growth pact,” said Catherine Trautmann, Mr Hollande’s adviser on Europe.
“In this renegotiation we are going to have to show a lot of political agility. The Irish have a lot of experience of this so I think they’ll be able to help us.”
Dublin has made light of Mr Hollande’s demands to change the treaty. The Government says it believes the French election should not disrupt the referendum because any new growth measures would not have “constitutional consequences” for Ireland.
