Iraq's military poses a substantial threat to US forces if the Bush administration orders an attack to overthrow President Saddam Hussein, military and Iraqi experts warned yesterday.
However, without US intervention, Iraq is likely to develop nuclear weapons within two years as part of an intensive and covert weapons programme, a US Senate committee has heard.
The experts' warnings to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee reinforce similar concerns by senior administration officials that renewed weapons inspections by the United Nations are unlikely to detect the full extent of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
Mr Khidir Hamza, the former director of Iraq's nuclear weapons programme, told senators that Iraq had enough uranium to produce three nuclear weapons by 2005.
He said the computer he used to design nuclear weapons was now in a hospital on the outskirts of Baghdad, in keeping with the covert and dispersed nature of Iraq's development of weapons of mass destruction. Other materials were avoiding detection by being bought through Indian corporations and channelled through Malaysia for shipment to Iraq.
"Iraq is in the final stages of putting together its enrichment programme to enrich enough uranium for the final component needed in the nuclear core," he said. "The window of opportunity to abort this option before it happens is closing down, possibly within the next two or three years. After that, a change of regime will be a much costlier prospect."
However, senators also heard that Mr Saddam was unlikely to hand over his weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups.
Co-ordination between Iraq and Islamic fundamentalist terrorists is considered by the administration to be the most pressing reason for confronting Iraq, following the September 11th terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.
Mr Richard Butler, former chairman of the UN weapons inspections regime in Iraq, said: "I have seen no evidence of Iraq providing [weapons of mass destruction] to non-Iraq terrorist groups.
"I suspect that, especially given his psychology and aspirations, Saddam would be reluctant to share what he believes to be an indelible source of his power."
During the Gulf War Mr Saddam had the equipment and knowledge but not the material for making a nuclear weapon, he said. "The question now is: has Iraq acquired the essential fissionable material either by enriching indigenous sources or by obtaining it from external sources? And I don't know the answer."
Mr Butler said it was important to make one more effort to persuade Mr Saddam to allow UN inspectors back into Iraq, even though he believed the attempt would fail. Mr Butler headed the agency established to supervise the dismantling of Iraq's weapons after the 1991 Gulf War, but inspectors left the country in December 1998.
"I think we've got to go a little further way if for no other reason than to make clear to the world that we went the full distance to get the law obeyed and arms control restored before taking other measures," Mr Butler said.
Senators heard yesterday that Iraqi forces were unlikely to be overrun in a rapid fashion by US troops. Mr Anthony Cordesman, chairman of strategy at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said: "I think only fools would put the lives of other men's sons and daughters on their own arrogance and call these forces a cakewalk or a speed bump or something that you can dismiss.
"I see every reason for the reservations of the American military and the joint chiefs and I think efforts to dismiss the military capabilities of Iraq are dangerous and irresponsible."
- (Financial Times/Reuters)