With poor weather, ambivalence over Nice and tensions within the IFA, the conditions exist for a difficult winter for farmers, writes Sean MacConnell, Agriculture Correspondent
Early on Wednesday morning last, the seafront at Kinsale became the latest battle ground for Irish farmers. They moved in and prevented - for a time - the unloading of a coaster carrying 2,500 tonnes of grain from Britain.
Eleven days before, militant grain growers, members of the Irish Farmers' Association, carried out a similar operation at the docks in Drogheda. This led to the Competition Authority carrying out a raid on the IFA's offices in Bluebell, Co Dublin, last Monday.
Last month, farmers were out on the streets protesting outside the Ardee, Co Louth, headquarters of Mr Larry Goodman over the prices beef farmers were being paid for their stock at beef factories.
These actions have all come at the end of one of the most difficult farming summers for many years which has already seen a significant drop in grain yields, barns which are empty of winter fodder and a general air of despondency.
Ireland has had more than twice the average summer rainfall, which badly damaged the early vegetable crops, laid waste to the first cut silage crops - especially on wetter western soils - and made life generally miserable.
Over the previous months dairy farmers, described in the business as white gold dealers, saw milk prices drop from an historic high to levels which threatened their future.
The poorer beef farmers were also struggling trying to make ends meet on product prices which left little profit.
The summer drizzled on against the backdrop of a threatened major reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, the so-called Fischler reforms which proposed to decouple supports from produce and cut support prices dramatically.
While the weather did improve in August, the improvement came far too late for the cereal growers who are looking at a 20 per cent drop in income this year. The improvement also came too late for vegetable growers who found they could not replant late crops.
On the east coast, many farmers got all their vital winter silage harvested - unlike their western counterparts who managed to save around three-quarters of their crop.
However, all over the island, the quality of the winter fodder is low and there will be a yet-to-be-quantified deficit in winter feed.
Such conditions have been experienced before by the farming community which has never been without support either by national government or by the European Union when times are hard. However, the sight of farmers taking to the streets before the harvest is somewhat unique.
Most people in the industry accept that the late summer flexing of muscles by the main farming organisation has more to do with politics than with anything else.
The 85,000 strong IFA is well aware of the opportunities presented to it by the Government's need for farming support to carry the referendum this time out. While the majority of farmers who came out to vote in the last referendum on the issue voted Yes, the combined total of those who voted No and stayed at home represented a majority.
There is a sense in the industry that the Government is vulnerable on this issue and while all the main farming organisations, including the IFA, have called for a Yes vote, their commitment to delivering on that call has been challenged by the Minister for Agriculture and Food, Mr Walsh.
He has warned them not to link support for Nice to autumnal hand-outs to the farmers hit by bad weather and falling prices, and has advised them they are two separate issues.
Support for the treaty was the first issue on the agenda at a meeting between Mr Walsh and the IFA in Kildare Street on Wednesday last. It was described as "earthy" rather than constructive by one source at the table.
Mr Walsh, last year's hero of the foot-and-mouth crisis, held his ground because he was aware that farmers stand to lose far more than they would gain by voting against the treaty.
The meeting, which ran several hours over schedule, ended with the IFA delegation walking away from the table with the clear message from Government that if they wished to destroy themselves, they could vote No but as of now, there would be no national handouts.
This message is about to be reinforced with the pre-voting payout of much of the €1.5 billion farmers are due to get from Brussels by way of support this year.
He and his officials were well aware that the recent street action by the IFA has as much to do with internal IFA politics than the multi-layered EU canvas, bad weather or the price of winter fodder.
Since taking over as president of the IFA, John Dillon has felt under severe threat from within the organisation, especially from the east-coast dairy farmers who did their best to ensure that he would not become their leader.
Mr Dillon's supporters are preparing for a mid-term challenge in 2004 and want to be able to point to successes rather than defeats in this, his first year at the helm.
His opponents have plenty of God- and manmade issues which they are demanding he address and are insisting that he make good on his election pledge, "Dillon delivers".
"You don't keep a bull and roar yourself," said one of his opponents this week, totally unaware, according to one IFA insider, that Mr Dillon is finding the going as top man tougher than he thought.
"He created an expectation that he could deliver anything his supporters wanted and unfortunately, his timing was lousy because farmers need more help this year than they normally would because of the weather and market conditions," said one Dillon supporter.
This weekend, as the organisation began a reassessment of where it goes from here, there was an expectation that, under Mr Dillon's leadership, there is likely to be more street protests and blockades.
The conditions exist for a winter of discontent and there is no doubt that John Dillon can certainly deliver on that. Whether the protests will deliver anything worthwhile in terms of additional national support for the farming community is a question which can only be answered by the passage of time.