In Jerusalem two weeks before Easter, most people are scared to death. Deaglán de Bréadún reports on the conflict between Arabs and Jews that has taken on the appearance of war
Some places you go, you feel right at home. Not so Jerusalem these days. The shops are there, but it's not Grafton Street. There are no people other than a few brave souls. An old Jewish couple sip wine and smile at one another, oblivious to the danger. They have seen bad times come and go.
Among the pedestrians one meets, several are armed. A bunch of young boys in T-shirts and sneakers have guns draped over their shoulders. They are talking about girls and rock music, just like home, except at home they would be playing football and not patrolling the streets ready to challenge and maybe shoot other young men with bulges around their waist.
Every conflict brings its own gruesome contribution to the lexicon of terror. In Northern Ireland, it was the barbaric practice of kneecapping; in South Africa, the horrific burning-tyre "necklace"; here, and most terrible of all, it is the suicide bomb.
The Israelis are at their wits' end trying to prevent these nihilistic acts.
But where one is stamped out, 10 seem to grow in his place. I am told that young Palestinians are "queueing up" to give not only their lives but the lives of as many Israelis as possible "for the cause".
Advice to the visitor, if you are mad enough to come here, always begins with the word Don't. Don't go to town on Saturday night. Stay away from crowded Jewish areas. Places frequented by young people are a particular hazard: the bombers are also young and try to blend in with the crowd. "Don't go into town on Sunday: Sunday is bomb-day," I was told. Don't go wandering after dark.
An Israeli friend said that when the latest bombing wave started, he hadn't changed his behaviour. "I won't be intimated by terrorists," was his attitude. But the sheer volume and persistence of the suicide attacks has made him think again. His motto now is, Be careful and be lucky.
The motto of the Palestinians is "no fear". Originally a slogan of well-to-do west coast surfers in the US, it has now been adopted by one of those peoples whom Franz Fanon dubbed "the wretched of the earth".
Like other Third World peoples before them, the Palestinians have got the bit between their teeth and seem prepared to sustain casualties without number to achieve their aims. It is a huge challenge, even to a nation as well armed and combat-ready as Israel.
Having had enough of the tension in the Jewish sector, I cross to the Arab quarter in the east of the city. To do so, I have to negotiate my way through a knot of Israeli policemen questioning a young Arab. I stop at an internet café. It is full of noisy children playing computer games. But I notice that the oldest of them, a boy of about 15, is not playing a game but is checking out a weapons website instead. Childhood doesn't last long in these parts.
This is my fourth visit here since the Intifada (uprising) began 18 months ago. Each time, the deterioration is shocking. But what previously looked like an extreme case of civil strife now more and more resembles an actual war. A colleague points out that it could get even worse. Right-wing Jewish vigilantes could decide to take the law into their own hands and exact retribution on Palestinian civilians.
The various armed Palestinian police forces, who number in their thousands, could be drawn openly and unequivocally into the conflict and maybe start hitting the many vulnerable Jewish settlements in the West Bank. An Israeli missile, instead of landing 20 metres from Arafat, could hit the President himself.
THE TWO peoples have never been further apart. A recent attack on a fashionable restaurant favoured by middle-class and politically moderate Israelis showed that the young Palestinians recognise no distinction of left or right: the enemy is the enemy, or as extremists in the South Africa situation grimly put it, "one settler, one bullet".
And yet the situation is not entirely without hope. The US, the only force with any real influence on both sides, has taken a surprise initiative on the UN Security Council. After years of saying No to everything when it came to the Middle East, the Americans are now dangling the prospect of a Palestinian state before the world. Gen Anthony Zinni is here as President Bush's special envoy. He is no George Mitchell, but he cannot keep going home to his boss empty-handed. Vice-President Dick Cheney is also in the region. No friend of Arafat's, he is nevertheless shrewd and intelligent enough to know this situation cannot be allowed to get much worse.
The Saudi Arabian peace initiative is a bright spot in an otherwise bleak scenario. It offers recognition of Israel by the Arab states in return for an Israeli withdrawal to its 1967 boundaries. That would probably mean dismantling the Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza which would cause convulsions in Israeli politics. Yet the plan just might work: it has echoes of the Good Friday peace deal where recognition of Northern Ireland was traded for concessions to nationalists and republicans.
There is a growing shadow over the entire situation, namely the prospect of a US-led invasion of Iraq. "If not now, when?" says the American Right. But what if Saddam Hussein, in a last, desperate throw, unleashes missiles or chemical warfare against Israel? The stakes could hardly be higher.
A fortnight before Good Friday, it is hard to believe Jerusalem can be so empty. Tourism is in the doldrums and hoteliers are letting their rooms at less than half the normal price. The centuries-long flow of pilgrims into the Holy City has virtually stopped. There will be few to re-enact the suffering of Jesus Christ on the Via Dolorosa in Jerusalem's Old City this year. But sadly there is otherwise more than enough suffering to go around.