Mayo is being divided in two, with the north-west in "crisis" due to a declining population, according to archaeologist Prof Seamus Caulfield.
Preliminary results from the 2002 census shows that north-west Mayo, which constitutes 40 per cent of the county land area, has less than 20 per cent of its population. It is the only region in the State which is in "demographic crisis", Prof Caulfield says.
"If this level of numerical decline continues into the future, then north and west Mayo from Killala to Newport will be entirely deserted by the end of this century," he predicts. The academic, now professor emeritus with UCD, attributes much of this to Government neglect. "If any other species was declining at the rate of the human species in the region, there would be an outcry," he told The Irish Times.
Overall, census figures for Mayo are very positive, he notes, with a 5,904 increase in population. This reflects very healthy levels of immigration at about 1,000 people a year since the last census was carried out in 1996. The natural increase had been zero - and in some recent periods there had been a decrease.
However, some 39 of 42 electoral divisions in a line from south of Killala to south of Newport show population declines, he says. Glencastle, Newport West and Corraun Achill are the only positive divisions in this area, while the 39 are down by 1,209 people.
This translates into a net loss of 1,109 from the area in the six-year period since the last census, from an existing population of 22,765. In 16 years, north and west Mayo has lost 3,650 people from a population of 25,306.
The southern and eastern region of the county, including the expanding urban areas of Castlebar and Westport, show an increase of 7,013 overall.
"This means that we now have two distinct Mayos emerging within the county," he says. "In percentage terms, one part of the county is growing by about 1 per cent per annum, while the other part is declining by the same amount."
Last year, the Western Development Commission reported on growing economic divides between regions, in spite of commitments made in the National Development Plan. Prof Caufield says urgent action is required for north-west Mayo, including extension of the town renewal scheme to Killala and Crossmolina, and greater support for indigenous industries, such as commercial fishing.
He also says the Government must try to secure replacement industries for those lost. High-capacity broadband telecommunications should be put into every town in the area, and it is imperative that the primary benefit of natural gas from the Corrib field should be applied in the immediate area. This includes providing gas to as many towns and industries in the region as possible.
Last week, Independent Mayo TD Dr Jerry Cowley accused the Government of reneging on its promise to deliver a natural gas service to Ballina in north Mayo and Sligo. He also said the Government had "no intention" of providing it to other towns in Mayo, as had been promised.
