A fall in the numbers of students sitting next month's Leaving Certificate may mean a reduction in points needed for certain third-level courses. The points levels will be set within the next few months.
With a fortnight to go before the State examinations, the number of pupils due to take the Leaving Certificate exam has fallen by approximately 2,500.
A drop of 1,600 in the number of applications for third-level places to the Central Applications Office has already been announced. This includes a reduction in the numbers giving courses such as medicine and pharmacy as their first preference.
Because of a fall in the youth population generally, Department of Education officials believe there is likely to be further reductions in the numbers doing the examination over the next decade. This could have a downward effect on points in the long term, and follows the noticeable decrease in the number of applications to the CAO this year.
However, sources say the points level is a function of the number of places available at third level and this is the responsibility of the colleges.
The latest figures echo the views of the Economic and Social Research Institute, which has predicted a fall of 10 per cent in the number of school-leavers over the next six years. Added to this is a dramatic fall in the number of students repeating the examination. Many pupils are deciding to take up employment rather than repeat. Preliminary figures from the Department of Education, seen by The Irish Times, show the numbers taking the exam this year down to 60,000 from about 62,500 last year. The reductions are evident in the main subjects.
Once again the number of students taking science subjects has fallen. The figures for physics and chemistry this year are at their lowest for many years. Physics is down to 8,919 from 9,495, while chemistry is down to 6,951 from 7,206. Biology, which has been the most popular science subject for many years, is down from 30,040 to 27,700.
In languages, French is down from 37,973 to 36,941, German is down from 11,126 to 10,459, as is Spanish, down 1,623 to 1,476. Irish was down from 58,203 to 56,045.
History, controversial last year for what was regarded by many as a difficult paper, falls from 14,552 to 13,360. Geography is down to 31,135 from 31,004, while English and Maths are down by between 2,200 and 2,500, although their returns are the most likely to change in the next week or two.