CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:IN THE last general election two Fianna Fáil TDs were returned for this three-seater. Noel Ahern, a brother of former taoiseach Bertie Ahern, topped the poll with almost 8,000 first preferences and was elected on the first count.
His Fianna Fáil colleague Pat Carey, who is a Minister with three separate portfolios in the outgoing Government, came second with just over 7,000 votes and got in on the third count.
On this occasion, there is only one Soldier of Destiny going before the electorate. Ahern has retired after 19 years’ Dáil membership.
Labour’s Róisín Shortall, currently the party’s spokeswoman on social and family affairs, was also elected on the third count in the last general election, having secured just over 6,000 first-preference votes.
She was originally part of the “Spring tide” in 1992, and looks a virtual certainty to benefit from the “Gilmore gale” as a polltopper this time around. Her forceful and forensic questioning of witnesses at the Dáil’s Committee of Public Accounts has raised her political profile and she may be a contender for ministerial office in a Fine Gael-Labour government.
Sinn Féin’s Dessie Ellis failed to be elected four years ago but put in a strong showing with almost 5,000 votes on the first count and remained in the race until the fourth count.
Given the boost in Sinn Féin’s poll ratings, even political opponents are predicting that Ellis, a former republican prisoner who is a member of Dublin City Council since 1999, has a serious chance of making it to the 31st Dáil.
Dublin North West would not be considered a Fine Gael stronghold. The outspoken Dr Bill Tormey, who previously stood as an Independent, was the party’s sole candidate in the 2007 general election. He received slightly over 3,000 first preferences and was eliminated on the second count.
The Fine Gael showing will almost certainly improve this time with the addition to the ticket of the current Lord Mayor of Dublin, Cllr Gerry Breen, who was a running-mate of Richard Bruton in nearby Dublin North Central in the 2002 general election. Fine Gael has not held a seat here since the defeat of Mary Flaherty in the 1997 election.
It is an index of the decline in the fortunes of Fianna Fáil that the party obtained nearly half the first preferences and almost two quotas in 2007 but will need a fair amount of luck to get a single seat this time.
Labour is running two candidates this time, and Cllr John Lyons could take a second seat for the party. Fine Gael is also in the hunt for a seat with Breen’s move from his local authority base outside the constituency in Clontarf.
With the departure of Ahern, one of the challenges for Carey is to garner votes in the former’s stamping ground of Ballymun. He faces a formidable rival in Lyons but should just about make it.