Fianna Fáil hopes to stay in Government even if the PDs pull out, writes Liam Reid, Political Reporter
A quiet numbers game has begun in the chief whip's office over the last 10 days as Fianna Fáil contemplated the possibility that the Progressive Democrats could withdraw from Government.
Party officials have drawn up a contingency plan to ensure Fianna Fáil continues in Government with the support of up to six Independent TDs. Informal contacts have been made in the last 10 days with some of the Independents, but the specific question has not been put to them.
The Government chief whip Tom Kitt stressed yesterday that Fianna Fáil was not looking for another partner but said the party could continue in Government without the support of the PDs.
"The preferred option of course is to continue in the current Coalition and to complete the Programme for Government," he said. "But clearly, if anything happened, there are a number of obvious options for Fianna Fáil." The party has 78 TDs, including Niall Blaney, and excluding the Ceann Comhairle Rory O'Hanlon. This is five short of the 83 TDs needed to exercise an effective majority.
In the event of a PD walkout, the party is planning to implement what is known as the "gene-pool" option of seeking the support of TDs who were previously members of the party. The first two targets are TDs Beverley Flynn and Michael Collins, who both lost the party whip. Both usually vote with the Government and are considered potentially sympathetic. However Ms Flynn, who was expelled from the party, would be expected to make a series of significant demands.
Fianna Fáil's next targets are Jackie Healy-Rae and Mildred Fox, who supported the 1997-2002 coalition government in return for significant financial support for their constituencies. The Government has maintained contact with both TDs, and their representations have received priority. It is believed there has been informal contact in the last 10 days since the controversy began.
The support of the four TDs above will only bring Government numbers up to 82 out of 166 deputies, which would leave it very vulnerable. It is likely therefore that Fianna Fáil would also make overtures to a further two Independents to bring its numbers up to 84. The two independent TDs it is most likely to target in this event are Paudge Connolly of Monaghan, and Galway East TD Paddy McHugh.
Mr Connolly, a former psychiatric nurse, was elected on a Save Monaghan Hospital campaign. Mr McHugh is a former Fianna Fáil councillor from Tuam who ran as an Independent in 2002 after he failed to secure a nomination for the party.
While a former member of the party he is not seen as a strong supporter of Government, and has adopted an independent line on a variety of issues. Fianna Fáil has been in contact with neither TD in recent days, and both would be expected to make stringent demands in return for their support.