Fianna Fáil has given the clearest signal yet that a general election will not take place before the end of May next year, by attempting to delay its 2007 ardfheis by nearly a month.
The attempt to change its plans emerged following contacts between the party and RTÉ over television coverage for the two-day event, which normally includes a 30-minute speech by Taoiseach Bertie Ahern that is televised live.
In letters to all political parties last month, RTÉ told them they would not broadcast any party conference live if it took place after the end of March because it believed that live coverage subsequently would be inappropriate.
Complying with the request initially, Fianna Fáil said they would hold their gathering on March 23rd/24th in the Citywest Hotel outside Dublin, with Mr Ahern's presidential address taking place on the Saturday night.
However, party organisers subsequently discovered that its original date clashes with the first-ever soccer match to be held in Croke Park, the European Championships qualifier against Wales, and sought a change to April 20th/22nd.
Given that a general election could not be called beforehand - because RTÉ coverage of such events would not happen during a campaign, the Taoiseach could not call an election before April 24th, with polling day taking place no earlier than the middle of May.
However, RTÉ has refused to accept the request made by Fianna Fáil's general secretary, Seán Dorgan, and it has repeated its determination, in a letter sent last week, not to broadcast any conferences after the end-March deadline.
Fianna Fáil is concerned that the huge publicity surrounding the staging of the first-ever soccer match in Croke Park would overshadow its ardfheis, depriving it of vital press and television coverage.
The party has yet to respond to RTÉ's refusal, so it is, therefore, still not clear if Fianna Fáil will revert to its original date, find another before the end of March, or run an ardfheis without live TV coverage - though the latter option is unlikely.
Croke Park does not yet have floodlights, but it has lodged a planning application with Dublin City Council to spend over €4 million installing lights for evening matches. Subject to there being no significant delays in the planning system, the GAA is hoping to have the lights installed by the end of the year, though objections from residents could affect the timetable.
If lights are installed, the Ireland/Wales match could be held in the evening, thus leaving the opportunity to broadcast Mr Ahern's address in the late afternoon - though this is not a popular option for most parties.
Fine Gael originally chose to hold its ardfheis on March 10th, but it switched to March 31st to seek a benefit from the usual post-conference "bounce" enjoyed by political parties as close as possible to the date of the general election.
The Progressive Democrats have elected to hold their annual conference on February 17th; the Greens have chosen February 24th and Sinn Féin has opted for March 3rd.
