In the January opinion poll, the last before the foot-and-mouth crisis, Fianna Fail's core support and Government ratings had increased by four and six points respectively since the previous September.
This was contributed to primarily by the impact of what was seen by a considerable majority as a very acceptable budget. The fact that seven electors in every 10 saw it as being good for the country was in direct contrast to the reservations and indeed implied censure, expressed by the European Commission a week or so later.
Since then, the introduction of travel and movement restrictions, necessitated by the foot-and-mouth situation in Northern Ireland and the northeast of this State resulted in a four-month hiatus in the conduct of in-home interviewing in rural areas. The removal of restrictions just before the weekend gave the all-clear to a resumption of market research nationally.
This survey was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week and the methodology was identical to all previous projects in the series. Before considering the survey findings, it is desirable to set out the background and briefly review the various events of a political nature which took place since January, which had the potential to influence public opinion.
In early February, Michael Noonan was elected as the new leader of Fine Gael, following the passing of a no-confidence motion in John Bruton by the parliamentary party nine days earlier. The new leader duly appointed a new front bench.
In mid-February, Ned O'Keeffe resigned as minister of State in the Department of Agriculture and Food, following a decision by the Public Offices Commission to investigate whether he had breached the Ethics In Public Office Act in a Dail vote last November. Following the resignation, Mary Coughlan (Donegal South West) was promoted to Minister for State in the Department of Arts, Heritage, Gaeltacht and the Islands in a minor reshuffle.
In early March, Ray Burke, a former Fianna Fail minister, told the Flood tribunal that he agreed he broke the law in operating offshore bank accounts, without Central Bank approval.
Later in the month, the new Fine Gael leader, speaking at a restricted party ardfheis in Dublin, positioned the party as one of low tax and public-service provision, with a mission to cleanse public life following the tribunal revelations.
A few days later, a debate resurfaced as to the source of a donation of $50,000 which the Fine Gael party received from the late David Austin in May 1997.
In April, Beverley CooperFlynn, Fianna Fail TD for Mayo, was expelled from the parliamentary party after she had been ordered by the High Court to pay the entire costs of her libel action against RTE and other named persons. She has since said she will appeal the decision to the Supreme Court.
Later the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, announced a Government grant of £60 million to the GAA and also said the costs of the proposed National Sports Stadium would be investigated and clarified.
Finally, revelations from the 1970 Arms Trial had also been going on before the survey began.
However, this week's special Cabinet meeting on health, the Dublin Castle reception debate, and media reports on the resumed Flood tribunal would not have been considered in the survey.
The net cumulative effect of the political events of the past four months, in public opinion terms, has been an upturn of four points in Fine Gael support and one for Fianna Fail. The Labour and Green Parties are each down two and Sinn Fein and the PDs are holding their support at 6 per cent and 4 per cent respectively.
The significance of these changes in either statistical or political terms will not become clear for some time, although it is possible that Fine Gael has gained since the election of Michael Noonan. However, the fact that Mr Noonan's satisfaction rating of 37 per cent is identical to that of his predecessor in January indicates that there may be broader reasons for the upturn in party support.
It would appear that he has not had sufficient time as a party leader to have become sufficiently well known, since some 23 per cent of Fine Gael supporters had no opinion on his performance.
Fianna Fail, the main Government party, in spite of having to contend with a number of internal disruptions, continues to command solid support.
Bertie Ahern's influence as Taoiseach, illustrated in the form of continuing high satisfaction ratings, indicates that his personal impact is appreciated right across the electorate at large and extends to majorities among supporters of both main opposition parties as well as the two Government parties.
Over the past four years of this Government, its current satisfaction rating of 59 per cent has only been exceeded five times and this figure, coupled with the Taoiseach's rating of 64 per cent, represents an impressive impact at this stage of its shelf life.
These levels are also superior to the comparable figures for the two previous Fianna Fail Taoi sigh, Albert Reynolds and Charles Haughey, at similar stages in their administrations. However, just a month before the 1997 election, the then Taoiseach John Bruton and his government were on 58 per cent and 57 per cent respectively, and while Mr Bruton's level was six points below that of Mr Ahern's at the moment, the 57 per cent government rating is identical to the average figure for this Government to date.
The message is that satisfaction ratings have little relationship to future behaviour.
The Labour Party's adjusted figure of 13 per cent, although down somewhat on the levels of June and September last, re mains on a par with the party's average core support over 2000 and continues therefore to be solidly based. Ruairi Quinn's satisfaction rating as party leader also remains solid at 47 per cent and can be classified as satisfactory when assessed in the context of the conventional disadvantageous opposition base.
The Progressive Democrats continue to hold their relatively limited but solid base of 4 per cent, and with Mary Harney's rating as Tanaiste up five points to 59 per cent, second to the Taoiseach, the two Government parties will be happy with the views of the electorate.
Over last year, the average figure (adjusted) for Sinn Fein was 4.5 per cent and today's level of 6 per cent is identical to the January figure. This is significant and the party is today positioned in third place in Dublin, one point ahead of Labour.
Support for the Green Party - down to 3 per cent adjusted - is also heavily concentrated in the Dublin region. Finally, and again significantly, the Independents (including Workers' Party 1 per cent) remains relatively high at 8 per cent. In overall terms, the survey figures represent a potent vista in the countdown to the next election. The combined smaller parties and Independents command 21 per cent of first-preference support, which compares with 14 per cent in January last year, and 8 per cent in the 1981 general election.
While current opinion may not, ipso facto, reflect behaviour in the next election, the vibes which have been evident for some time continue to manifest themselves and it is a safe bet that surprises are on the horizon.